Devin Williams has had a miserable season, posting a 5.40 ERA in his first and potentially only season with the New York Yankees.
With a -0.48 Win Probability Added, the Yankees have lost because of Williams, a player who has consistently aided the Brewers especially in close games.
It feels as if the Yankees may never be able to fully trust the All-Star closer, but some of the underlying data suggests that some positive regression could occur down the stretch.
Just a year ago, Clay Holmes suffered a similar fate, being demoted from his closer role and leaving fans in complete distrust of him entering October.
He delivered in that postseason for the Yankees, and if the team wants to get back to the World Series, they’ll need Devin Williams to put it together.
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Why the Yankees Won’t Give Up on Devin Williams
The biggest reason why the Yankees hold out hope with Devin Williams has to do with his underlying numbers, which all indicate that he’s been incredibly unfortunate.
While his 3.14 Expected ERA and 2.94 FIP would be the worst marks of his career, neither metric indicates that he should be a net-negative for the Yankees.
His elite K-BB% and low HR/9 (0.82) indicate that Williams should be a firmly above-average reliever if not the best reliever on the team.
Williams has been incredible as of late in both categories, he’s allowed just a 31.3% Hard-Hit% with a 0.14 FIP since August 10th.
The lone blowup for him came in Houston, where umpires robbed him of multiple strikeouts that would have gotten him out of the jam.
There’s no reason to believe that he should continue sporting a high ERA, and the numbers would indicate that he’s due for a massive pendulum swing in the opposite direction.
Last night the Yankees chose to use Devin Williams over Luke Weaver in the eighth inning, a decision that worked out beautifully for the team.
As they look at the postseason, it has to be viewed as a new season entirely, using the regular season to determine whether a player’s process warrants them playing in October.
It’s why I’ve been so vocal about starting Cam Schlittler, who has the best K-BB% in the rotation, as the Yankees’ Game 3 starter in a potential series.
The Yankees need to miss bats in the postseason, it’s the easiest way to control the result of a plate appearance for a pitching staff.
Pitchers such as Fernando Cruz and Luke Weaver have strong whiff rates, as does current closer David Bednar, and if they can get Devin Williams back online they’ll be in a good spot.
Last year’s bullpen wore down as they got into October, leaning heavily on Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes to get big outs in the clutch.
Can Tim Hill get critical outs against lefties? Is Will Warren able to deliver strong innings out of the bullpen? Can someone like Brent Headrick or Ryan Yarbrough get hot at the right time?
It’ll be easier to manage the final innings of a game if Devin Williams is that guy, and the numbers tell us that with enough reps, he should be fine.