Free agency for the Yankees has been a long, slow, and arduous affair which has led the team to remain in talks with Cody Bellinger as we get closer to Februrary.
The Yankees play Spring Training games in a little over 30 days; things have to start moving for these two sides or Bellinger’s performance could be seriously affected.
He hit under .200 in his first 25 games of the 2024 season with a 57 wRC+ before correcting course and producing an .857 OPS the rest of the way, a year where he signed on February 28th.
Other teams, including the New York Mets, are lurking in the shadows to steal him from the Yankees if they don’t act swiftly, and the pressure has reached a boiling point in the Bronx.
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Why the Yankees Need Cody Bellinger to Come Back
The American League could have had an influx of talent come from the National League, as Kyle Tucker had long been rumored to be a top target for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Even scarier was the knowledge that their infield could still have room for Bo Bichette, who was also a free agent and had a bit of an unclear market place until the Phillies and Mets got involved.
Neither player ended up in Toronto, and barring a massive change in reported plans, the Blue Jays are likely done making landscape-altering additions.
Boston is still looming as a team that could add another bat to its lineup by trading from its outfield and pitching surplus, especially after adding Ranger Suarez, but the subtraction of Alex Bregman is notable.
As things stand right now, Cody Bellinger is available and the Yankees’ proposed offer to him would be a *fine* overpay for a team trying to construct a contender for the 2026 season.
The Yankees’ two worst-projected positions on FanGraphs are LF (2.1) and DH (1.5), and Bellinger would affect both in some way since he gives the team another outfielder and adds some much-needed utility.
His return brings the team closer to winning a World Series than a pivot plan that would likely fail to bring in a player as good as the left-handed hitting outfielder, and it would give them a greater ability to focus on the trade market.
You could point out that the team pivoted from Juan Soto and found a way to win 94 games, but that team got a decision about the star outfielder in December and had most of a stacked free agent class to choose from right after.
New York positioned itself to be Bellinger-or-bust; the return of Cody Bellinger is the only remaining option on the market of significant note unless they force a trade of a player with a farm system that isn’t loaded.
Why the organization played the game this way with a Scott Boras client who only spent one year with the team is understandable given what Kyle Tucker signed for, but it’s not agreeable when the goal is to win a title.
Maybe he ends up signing their five-year $155 million pact and this all becomes irrelevant, but Boras can hold Brian Cashman’s arm behind his back until he taps out or another team taps in.
Jasson Dominguez and Austin Hays would project for a 1.6 WAR combined; a massive dropoff from what they got last year and while you could expect a good offensive outcome, you’d have to expect a terrible defensive one.
There is no Max Fried or outfield salary dump coming to save the Yankees this time; it’s Bellinger or the whole offseason is set ablaze…but does offering him a horrible contract fix that?
Why the Yankees Need to Keep Holding Firm
This is a very funny segment to follow-up with considering I just waxed poetic about how complicated the Yankees’ chances of winning a World Series would be if they had to navigate with a much worse outfield than last year.
With that being said, I think the already-existing offer on the table from the Yankees is a pretty good one considering the bells and whistles that the team seemingly has added.
I’m not sure exactly what a ‘big signing bonus’ which as been reported from Jon Heyman would look like exactly, it would increase the overall value of the contract to a point that I do believe makes it pretty attractive.
What could be scary is the idea that Cody Bellinger could take a three-year $126 million structure from the Mets that they just signed Bo Bichette to, but why would he want to hit the market at 31 at a ballpark that’s poor for him?
The last time Bellinger did this was when he came off an incredible season with the Cubs in 2023 as a 28-year-old, and Wrigley Field caused his stock to fall as he ended up not opting out.
With the five-year $155 million on the table including multiple player opt-outs and a signing bonus, he can hit the market again with various chances to get more guaranteed money by the end of his career.
This is why the Yankees should hold firm; if there’s any place for Bellinger to continue rising his stock on the market it would be in the Bronx with that short porch.
If Scott Boras took a three-year $126 million deal from a club like the Mets who have a bad ballpark for his swing and would all-but-certainly position him to not opt-out then the Yankees never had a chance in the first place.
The Yankees know they cannot lose Cody Bellinger, which is why they’ve offered a deal that gives him everything he wants short of seven years.
Until another team matches that demand for seven years, the Yankees should hold firm, even with the gravity of this situation.