In a little over six weeks, pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training, and as things stand right now the Yankees have had a less eventful offseason than expected.
When these long rumor mill articles come out from national writers, the Yankees are seldom mentioned in them or attached to players who could go in the free agent or trade market.
Cody Bellinger is their top target but he has shown no inclination of moving off the seven-year asking price reported by numerous outlets since the Winter Meetings.
A seemingly exciting sweepstakes for Tatsuya Imai has suddenly turned into confusion as his deadline to sign nears and the Yankees have joined the industry view that the right-hander’s camp is overvaluing his status on the market.
It’s a snooze fest so far, but while the clock is ticking for the team to make improvements, their avenues to do so have remained largely open to this point.
READ MORE: Yankees’ Cody Bellinger free agency pursuit takes an interesting turn
Why the Yankees Shouldn’t Start Making Panic Moves
The Yankees are projected to be one of the five best teams in baseball by FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections, and while ZiPS is less excited about the Bronx Bombers, they’re still viewed as a contender who can win the AL Pennant.
If pencils went down today and teams had to start therir 162-game schedules on Christmas Eve, the Yankees would likely open with greater odds to win the American League East than their odds of outright missing October.
A flawed roster is often conflated with a bad one; while it is true that the team has some serious holes that need to be addressed before the team flies out to San Francisco, it’s also true that they are considerably better than most AL teams.
When Brian Cashman says he believes this Yankees’ team is good, I’m not hearing a lie, but I do understand the apprehension to hearing such a comment from the GM.
Anxiety is rampant among Yankees fans who are seeing the days fly by without the team making much-needed additions to improve their roster, but should we be worried that they’re going to completely strikeout in the market?
For now, that kind of talk is pre-mature; the team has most of its perceived targets still on the board, especially in the pitching and outfield markets.
One player who the Yankees could trade for an impact starter would be Jasson Dominguez, but the team is understandably hesitant to deal him considering he’s their starting left fielder.
A contingency plan for Cody Bellinger walking would be having Dominguez in the corner outfield with a right-handed hitter to platoon with him, as while the defense would suffer, the offense would likely be 10-15% better than average.
I’d still consider a return to the Bronx to be the most likely outcome for Bellinger, who has interest from the Dodgers and Mets but on a “if his market collapses” scenario, not as aggressors actively hoping to bid above the market for him.
The Yankees are not going to bid against themselves here or in other markets they could be involved in, and this leads me to another point about free agency; teams who wait often do very well.
Blake Snell and Matt Chapman were steals of contracts for the Giants on those three-year deals with opt-outs, had the Yankees been patient and not just settled for Marcus Stroman, they might have won the 2024 World Series.
Shifting gears towards the Japanese markets, the deadlines set in place for guys such as Kazuma Okamoto and Tatsuya Imai to sign could burn them in negotiations.
People might have forgotten that Munetaka Murakami’s two-year $34 million deal is not the first time teams were lukewarm on an NPB free agent of note.
“Imanaga is expected to command more than the five-year, $75 million deal that Kodai Senga signed with the Mets last offseason” – Mark Feinsand, MLB.com 24 hours before Shota Imanaga signed
Not only did he get less money ($53 million), he didn’t even get as many years, landing this contract on a four-year deal with some creative opt-outs that he could use after 2025.
This is nothing against Feinsand, a respected writer who has broken deals for the Yankees before including their trade for Ryan McMahon at the trade deadline.
It’s just to say that the scenario expected for Tatsuya Imai was a bidding war between teams such as the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs for his services, and without that, there’s uncertainty about his final contract structure.
Fortune favors the bold, and if the Yankees play their cards right, waiting out the market could be a masterful gambit that results in the team landing key players at a lower price than projected.