Let’s have a chat about the Houston Astros, former National League Central punchline/also-rans turned American League West dynasty.
Cheating scandal aside, the team has proven itself over the past decade. Two World Series titles (albeit one tainted) and excellent player development have, slowly but surely, made the infamous trash can a distant memory.
There is one downside: Ever since the cheating was uncovered in early 2020, Astros owner Jim Crane has looked more like Jerry Jones. He seems a second GM alongside Dana Brown rather than just signing the checks. The examples are aplenty.
Closers can often be developed internally. The Astros gave lefty stopper Josh Hader a five-year, $95 million deal in free agency a year ago.
Jose Abreu, a former MVP and veritable power threat, received a three-year, $58.5 million contract ahead of the 2023 season. This despite Abreu being 36 and slugging a career-low 15 home runs the year before.
Abreu hit 18 home runs in a subaverage 2023 before the Astros released him back in June, roughly halfway through his contract.
The most mind-boggling decisions, however, may be even more recent. Over the weekend, Houston traded closer Ryan Pressly and cash to the Chicago Cubs. Nothing’s official, but this could be the Astros shedding salary to try and re-sign third baseman Alex Bregman, who has spent his entire nine-year career in Houston.
Bregman has been reliable as a bat-to-ball guy in the box and a slick glove in the field. The two-time All-Star has never struck out 100 times in a season. His 191 home runs come with a 135 wRC+. Add +27 defensive runs saved (DRS) and +22 outs above average (OAA) at third base, and he’s a strong all-around player.
Without getting too deep into the numbers, there are two reasons this isn’t the best idea for Houston. The first is simple: Bregman will be 31 on March 30 and the Astros need to get younger. Top prospect Cam Smith is a third baseman and has a shot to debut in 2025.
The second is more that despite the good numbers, Alex Bregman has gotten lucky. He has never been a good barrel hitter, and his power is largely thanks to Minute Maid Park’s Crawford Boxes. Wherever he plays next season, he’ll need a short left field fence to thrive at the plate. The Boston Red Sox and Fenway Park’s Green Monster come to mind, but the front office can’t get on the same page.
And yet, the Astros do appear one step closer to bringing Bregman back. This despite trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker for third baseman Isaac Paredes, a similar Bregman-type bat. His power broke out when he played for the Rays, inside the friendly enclosed Tropicana Field. Cue a trade to the Cubs last summer and Paredes only hit three home runs with Chicago, and only one at Wrigley Field!
But again, the Houston Astros keep holding onto the good old days. Forget failing upward into another AL West crown last year on the back of yet another Seattle Mariners collapse. The Astros love Bregman so much that star second baseman Jose Altuve is willing to move to left field and stick Paredes at second if it means keeping Bregman.
Except Altuve too is proof positive that Houston soon needs a reset. The three-time batting champion turns 35 next year and, despite respectable power numbers (Thanks, Crawford Boxes), is starting to show signs of aging. His .790 OPS was his lowest since 2013, and he’s posted a -41 DRS in the last three years.
The Astros gave Altuve a five-year, $125 million extension ahead of last season.
Someone, anyone, please save Jim Crane and the Houston Astros from themselves. They just don’t know how to quit each other. Why spend time developing a farm system when you can hold onto the glory days of yore?
Don’t get me wrong, Crane probably has the best intentions in the world and was, rightly, visibly upset by the cheating scandal five years ago. And, like we said earlier, fans have started to move on.
But a big part of moving on is the Astros moving on from that era. That means letting former stars like Bregman and Altuve fade to the background and maybe go play elsewhere. Both are franchise icons and deserve their rightful place in the team’s history, but their time is largely over. A new era of Houston Astros baseball should be on the horizon.
The problem is the Astros themselves aren’t letting it happen, and instead seem destined for a bleak inevitabilty. Sooner or later, they’ll become an old-looking team clinging to those championship years while the rest of the division rises up around them.
But if the fans are happy because Bregman re-signs, does it even matter?
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: The Houston Astros are feeding their own decline | Elite Sports NY