Cody Bellinger is enjoying a great 2025 campaign, posting a 124 wRC+ with 4.4 WAR and 28 home runs, as the Yankees essentially robbed the Cubs in their offseason trade.
While not a superstar the way Juan Soto is, Bellinger has certainly cemented himself as a good player, and the team will grapple with the internal decision to be his top bidder.
It won’t be a bidding war that results in the team shelling out $200 million to win, but I do expect that the team will have to commit a nine-figure deal to retain him.
Represented by Scott Boras, I’m inclined to believe that he will have Bellinger sign with the top bidder, so it begs the question, should the team keep him long-term?
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What Will the Yankees Shell Out To Retain Cody Bellinger This Winter?
An excellent defender who profiles extremely well for left field at Yankee Stadium, Cody Bellinger has played a big role in stabilizing a pretty unreliable defense in 2025.
He’s a capable defender at four positions, and his offense has been excellent as well, nearing a 30 HR, 100 RBI season while having a 124 wRC+.
The Yankees would love to keep a power-hitting lefty in their lineup, especially one who doesn’t falter against same-handed pitching, but what price would be reasonable for both parties?
For starter’s, I believe Cody Bellinger is going to sign a deal for 5-7 years that exceeds $100 million in total value, a deal that would both secure long-term money and also make him one of the richest outfielders in MLB history.
A player who he could compare to in WAR value would be Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets, who signed an eight-year deal valued at $162 million after the 2022 season.
Cody Bellinger has accumulated 4.6 bWAR this season, and Brandon Nimmo accumulated 5.0 bWAR in his walk year, being just eight months younger than the 2019 NL MVP.
The fact that he has an MVP and was once a top five player on the planet made his market complicated after an incredible 2023 season, but teams feared a regression in production, a regression that occurred in 2024.
A happy medium here would be a six-year contract, it would have Bellinger hit free agency again once he’s 36 years old, paying around $25 million a year for a $150 million deal.
This isn’t back-breaking money and it isn’t a significant raise over what he’s making right now, but for the Yankees, what would they be missing out on in the market?
It hasn’t been an MVP-caliber season for Kyle Tucker, but he’s still one of the better players in baseball, marginally outperforming Cody Bellinger in terms of WAR.
He’s one of the best players in the game, and with him hitting the market, it’s clear that he will be paid more because the league views him as more likely to produce more value in a given year.
Furthermore, just as Cody Bellinger struggled to handle the weird outfield in Wrigley and the brutal wind that kills flyballs, Kyle Tucker has struggled with that as well.
Tucker has a .524 SLG% on the road and a .410 SLG% at home, the discrepancy in power seems to stem from how pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field is when facing left-handed batters.
While Yankee Stadium is the 10th-most friendly ballpark for lefties, Wrigley Field is the sixth-least friendly according to Baseball Savant.
Could paying more money for Kyle Tucker fill the superstar-sized hole left behind by Juan Soto, or would it just limit the team’s ability to fill out the rest of the lineup with depth?
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The Luxury Tax has served as an effective salary cap for MLB teams, the biggest spenders in the game won’t go past a certain point because of the insane 110% tax placed on all expenses for teams over the fourth threshold.
Known as the ‘Steve Cohen’ tax, it’s prevented the Mets from making game-changing investments in the pitching staff in the hopes of spreading the wealth and improving the rest of the roster around their superstars.
The Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees spend tons of money on player development and Minor League facilities for the purpose of supplying their roster with cheap, pre-arbitration production that can open the door for big expenses.
Can prospects and young talent on the Yankees’ roster keep prices down?
If so, then the team should be comfortable paying Kyle Tucker instead of Cody Bellinger, because I believe he’ll end up providing more value espectally at Yankee Stadium.
He may not be the defender that Bellinger is, but he’ll make up for it with a 150-160 OPS+ and 30-40 home runs in his peak years.
This is all relative; the market will dictate what is or isn’t a responsible thing to do in my opinion, but the Yankees should act like the Bronx Bombers and pay for the best player.