A road trip in Toronto ended in a literal comedy of errors for the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers still trade the first-place Blue Jays by 4.5 games in the AL East, and desperately need some strong showings ahead of the trade deadline.
Their opponent this weekend, the Bryce Harper-led Philadelphia Phillies, are in a similar position. The Phils trail the first-place Mets by just a half-game. Slugging their way to a series win in the Bronx would certainly help get their momentum back.
But with the Yankees needing a hot streak like New Yorkers need bodega coffee, expect a tight series starting on Friday.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV +
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-160), O/U 10.5
Key Storyline: Can some home cooking help the Yankees? Despite their midsummer slump and slide, the Yankees still play pretty well at home. They’re 30-19 compared to 26-27 on the road. Philadelphia, similarly, is only .500 on the road.
New York, meanwhile, gets to spend a week at home against a streaky Phillies squad and a Tampa Bay Rays on the verge of selling at the deadline. Then a weekend visiting the lowly Marlins in Miami. Everything is set up for the Yankees to get some big wins under their belt and reestablish themselves as a powerhouse in the second half. But that, of course, depends on the players.
Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75 ERA) vs Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA). Once again, it’s going to come down to who has the worse night. Both Walker and Warren struggle with walks, Warren especially. He’s posted 4.22 BB/9 despite strong underlying numbers. In fact, looking back at Warren’s season overall, he’d probably be having a pretty solid season if not for the walks.
Walker, contrastingly, is a veteran who seems to have reinvented himself once again. He’s overachieving, especially with his pitching run value (PRV) at -5, but leading with his cutter and splitter as opposed to his sinker seems to be working. His goal tonight is to keep the ball on the ground and batters off the bases.
That said, this could all depend on how Warren is feeling in the first inning. His common flaw all season long has been a lack of confidence in his fastball. He stops getting calls on the corners, and just falls apart afterwards. Philly’s strong left-handed bats may want to consider an aggressive approach tonight.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. It’s been the case ever since his stellar rookie season in 2017: Where Aaron Judge goes, so does the rest of the Yankee lineup. Across the board, Judge is still in the midst of a great season, batting an AL-best .345 with 37 home runs and 84 RBI. More recently, he’s practically vanished.
Granted, Judge is batting .302 with seven homers in July, but only .182 since the All-Star break. Going back even further, to when the Yankees’ rough stretch happened all the way back on June 13, he’s only batting .250 since.
It doesn’t matter that teammates Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm have helped pick up the slack. This Yankees team needs its captain back in MVP mode. No better time to start than against the Phillies this weekend.
Prediction. From a betting standpoint, be it New York apps or New Jersey online casinos, an Aaron Judge-Kyle Schwarber home run parlay seems smart along with betting the over. Lefties also bat .282 against Will Warren compared to righties at .213. Adding a hit for either Harper or Bryson Stott could net you some extra bucks.
As to the prediction, New York wins on the perfect mix of home cooking and motivation. Yankees 7, Phillies 5
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