To say Max Fried and the start of his eight-year, $218 million pact with the Yankees has paid off is a good joke. The big lefty is 11-2 on the year with a stellar 2.27 ERA. Very easily an early favorite for the AL Cy Young.
And on Saturday agains the Cubs, Fried will go for his MLB-best 12th win of the year. He labored through five innings in last Sunday’s 6-4 victory over the Mets, allowing three runs and striking out five. Fried will look to close out his strong first half with an equally strong start after posting a 5.73 ERA in his last two.
It certainly helps that his Yankees teammates pummeled the Cubs in an 11-0 route on Friday. All thanks to three home runs and six RBI from Cody Bellinger, who would have had a fourth if Kyle Tucker didn’t make his leaping grab. With New York still two games behind Toronto in the AL East, Saturday isn’t just about getting Fried back on track. It’s maintaining momentum.
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-160), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Can Yankees’ bats carry the day again? The Yankees are back to their winning ways after a June swoon and then some. The 11 runs they put up on Friday was the team’s highest total since a 12-5 win over the Athletics on June 29. Over this five-game winning streak, the Yankees have averaged nearly 8.5 runs per game.
What’s more, New York trouncing Chicago on Friday helped the Bronx Bombers reclaim the best run differential in baseball. The Yankees’ mark now sits at +117 to the Cubs’ +114.
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (9-3, 2.52 ERA) vs Max Fried (11-2, 2.27 ERA). Quite the interesting matchup on Saturday, this battle of lefties. Boyd just earned his first All-Star selection after his strong first half of the season. He doesn’t allow a ton of ground balls and gives up some hard contact, but still has a solid five-pitch mix led by his fastball and changeup. He doesn’t have great career numbers against the Yankees, 1-3 with a 5.17 ERA in six starts, but is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts at Yankee Stadium.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, one Max Dorian Fried knows them all too well thanks to eight years with the Braves. Six starts, six wins, and an absolutely filthy 1.18 ERA. His Stuff+ is a solid 111. Boyd’s, by comparison, is only 95. He’s also a fly ball pitcher, so he’ll be hoping he keeps up his strong record in the Bronx.
X-Factor: Anthony Volpe. It may be time to have a serious conversation about Anthony Volpe. Yes, the former top prospect scored the winning run in Thursday’s comeback win over the Mariners and an RBI double on Friday. Even so, he’s batting just .177 since June 1 and his batting average on the year has dipped to .215.
And what’s more, Volpe’s numbers against the Cubs aren’t great despite the small sample size. He’s only batting .153 in seven games, four hits in 28 plate appearances. Two of those four, however, are for extra bases, including a home run. The Yankees still clearly believe in Volpe, so it’s time he proved them right.
Prediction. Let’s be clear, it’s very hard to imagine the Yankees trouncing the Cubs again. Scoring 11 runs is hard enough as it is, let alone in back-to-back games. We must also consider a highly motivated Chicago lineup stepping into the box against Fried. But even then, history suggests another long day ahead for the Cubbies. If you’re browsing New York sports betting apps, I’d roll the following: Yankees run line, Bellinger extending his hitting streak to 17, and maybe the over on Fried’s strikeouts. Yankees 6, Cubs 2
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