The New York Yankees upped their winning streak to four with a sweep of the Seattle Mariners, and now face a new challenge when the Chicago Cubs visit the Bronx this weekend. Craig Counsell, in his second year managing on the North Side, has the Cubbies are not only in first place, but own an MLB-best +124 run differential thanks to New York’s recent slide.
It’s only a small, four-game sample, but the Yankees who have won their last four look more like the Yankees of old. Seattle was outscored 25-14 through three games. They blew a 5-0 lead Thursday too. Worse yet, starter Bryan Woo had a no-hitter going into the eighth inning.
They’ll now look to keep swinging good bats against the Cubs, who struggle on the road despite sitting first in the NL Central.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-185), O/U 9.5
Key Storyline: Cody Bellinger faces his former team following offseason trade. Bellinger is on a tear as of late. He’s on a 15-game hitting streak that’s seen his batting average go from .261 to .280. He’s batting .368 in July and .391 over the streak entire. And tonight, he’ll face his former team.
Bellinger spent the previous two years with the Cubs and hit .307 in a resurgent 2023 season, taking home a Silver Slugger along the way. He inked a new three-year, $80 million deal with Chicago and had a solid 2024 before quietly requesting an offseason trade…to New York. Makes sense, considering his father, Clay, was a Yankees utility infielder and won two World Series rings.
The younger Bellinger also has solid career numbers against the Cubs from his initial years with the Dodgers. He’s a .291 hitter with a 1.022 OPS against Chicago.
Pitching Matchup: Chris Flexen (5-0, 0.83 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.30 ERA). Tale as old as time. The Yankees send a regular starter to the mound, the other team counters with a bullpen today. It’s the Cubs’ turn today when they send the veteran Chris Flexen to the mound. He’s had a strong year out of Chicago’s bullpen, leaning mostly on his fastball and cutter. Flexen has also had some great luck, posting a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .189.
On the Yankees’ side, Carlos Rodon is looking to recover after getting shelled for seven runs (six earned) in five innings versus the Mets last weekend. It helps that he has a respectable 3.44 ERA in eight career games (seven starts) against the Cubs. He’s been incorporating his changeup and sinker a lot more this year too. Both pitches could be key in battling a Cubs lineup currently tied with the Dodgers for second in MLB with 118 wRC+.
X-Factor: Paul Goldschmidt. The month of July has seen Goldschmidt slowly but surely find his swing again. He only has eight homers on the year, his power a bit sapped at age 37, but the former MVP is batting .370 in July and still taking some good swings. A welcome sign indeed after Goldschmidt only hit .143 in July.
Goldschmidt also knows the Cubs well from spending the first 14 years of his career in the National League. He’s a .296 career hitter with 32 home runs and a .938 OPS against the Cubs. He’ll look to keep the hot streak rolling if he’s in the lineup for a Cubs bullpen game tonight.
Prediction: This is tough because both the Yankees and Cubs are streaky in different ways. New York is streaky across the board, but Chicago is a streaky-scoring team. Win or lose, it seems the Cubbies either score a ton or get little to no run support with very little gray area.
Given that, we very cautiously suggest picking the Yankees if you’re on New York sports betting apps at all today. The moneyline will be a good idea, and so could some hitting parlays. Betting Bellinger to get a hit and extend his streak is a good idea, and the Cubs have three red-hot bats in Pete-Crow Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, and Seiya Suzuki. However, with the lefty Rodon pitching? Advantage Yankees. Yankees 6, Cubs 4.
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