Two months ago, the Yankees were swept by the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Cue a downward spiral that only really ended last week, and saw the Bronx Bombers sink to third place at their worst.
Two months later, Boston visits the Bronx for four important games. Manager Alex Cora always rallies his men to play a bit harder against the Yankees as it is, and now the playoff race is tighter. The Yankees have won five straight to rally back to second place, four games behind Toronto. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have lost their last three and only trail New York by 1.5 games in the AL East and Wild Card races.
These teams do not like each other, plain and simple. The weekend is destined to be a grudge match series. There is no room for complacency with the postseason lurking and the race still this close. And furthermore, no matter which team fares better, how the playoffs shape up is still anybody’s guess.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Betting line: Yankees -1.5 (-145), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: The Shaw-Sox Redemption. It’s a tale as old as time by now. The Red Sox own the Yankees early in the season, then New York rallies late in the season to humble Boston at the right time. The 1978 “Boston Massacre” which ultimately helped force the infamous “Bucky Dent Game” is a prime example. So is the Yankees’ five-game sweep of the Red Sox in Boston in 2006, when they entered the series clinging to first place and had it practically sealed up days later.
And how quickly we forget the 2009 championship season. The Yankees lost their first eight matchups with the Red Sox and still rallied to tie the season series, not to mention win 103 games on the year.
But history doesn’t repeat itself just because. Not in baseball. If the Yankees are serious about getting hot ahead of the playoffs, they’ll have to beat Boston the hard way: with strong at-bats and stronger pitching.
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.63) vs. Luis Gil (1-1, 5.14 ERA). Giolito has enjoyed something of a redemption season in 2025 after missing all of last season with elbow surgery. The veteran righty is back and throwing the ball harder. Gil has also pitched well after missing the first four months of the season with a sore shoulder, albeit still struggling with walks.
If any team has an advantage here, it’s the Yankees. Gil has only faced Boston three times in his young career, but has a 1.10 ERA. Giolito’s numbers aren’t bad, but he’s very much overachieving with his expected ERA (xERA) at an ugly 5.27. Giolito is also prone to giving up home runs, so Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton home run parlays are a good idea if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps.
X-Factor: Bullpens. By and large, both Boston and New York’s bullpens have swapped roles this season. The Yankees’ usual shutdown relievers have been rickety all year, particularly former Brewers closer Devin Williams, and the bullpen’s ERA sits at 4.23. That’s 22nd in MLB.
Boston’s bullpen, though? A 3.46 ERA and third in all of baseball. Former Yankee Aroldis Chapman is 37, has 22 saves on the year, and recently earned his eighth All-Star nod. Former Met Steven Matz was acquired from St. Louis after struggling with injuries, and now has a 1.17 ERA out of the Sawx ‘pen.
This is going to be a close game. Anyone who’s watched the Yankees and Red Sox this century knows that no lead is ever safe. This game will be just like the remaining three this weekend. One team gains an advantage, and crosses its fingers that it holds.
Prediction: The Yankees know all too well how important it is to show up for this series. There will be no “Boston wins, New York underachieves” storyline circling the headlines on Monday. Thus, this pitching matchup is an interesting one and brings separate risks to the table.
The Yankees would love for Giolito’s underlying metrics to catch up with him. The Red Sox would love Gil to not have control of his pitches, either walking hitters or hanging balls up in the zone. In this case, we’ll have a slugfest with New York inching out on top. Struggles aside, their 118 wRC+ is still the best in the game compared to Boston’s middling 103. Yankees 8, Red Sox 6.
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