Saturday’s tilt between the Yankees and Dodgers was indeed a slugfest, just as we predicted.
It was just a slugfest in the absolute worst way. Los Angeles’ deep lineup jumped on rookie Will Warren’s fastball from the start and welcomed him to the big leagues. An 18-2 romp later, Warren’s ERA ballooned to 5.19 and his FIP to a still-respectable 3.12 over a rough 1.1 inning outing.
New York’s sole offense? Two solo home runs from Aaron Judge. Shocker indeed.
This makes Sunday’s game a practical must-win, and with LA sending one of its best to the mound.
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Run Line: Yankees +1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Yarbrough (2-0, 3.06 ERA) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-3, 1.97 ERA). It’s will be interesting to see how the Dodgers’ aggressive approach thus far will match up with the crafty Yarbrough, who spent parts of 2023 and ’24 with LA. He’s become a soft contact machine (22.3%) using a mix of breaking pitches, almost never touching his fastball. He’s barely above average at 102 overall Stuff+, but his sweeper leads the way at a robust 119.
Yamamoto, meanwhile, is overachieving in a different way than Yarbrough does with his pitch mix. While his counting and overall underlying metrics are good, his individual pitches aren’t exactly special. His Stuff+ is actually below average at 94, and his BABIP is .228. Essentially, Yamamoto is the skilled gambler who went to Las Vegas to play some cards, pulled a slot on a whim, and hit jackpot.
X-Factor: Anthony Volpe. Slowly but surely, Volpe seems to be figuring it out with the bat. He’s only hitting .239, but holds a 110 wRC+ and a .301 BABIP. Bad luck is a thing, even in baseball.
However, one of the Yankees’ issues this series has been when push comes to shove, New York still leans on the top of its lineup while playing from behind. Volpe, meanwhile, is 0 for 6 in the series after batting .263 in his previous ten games. Ironically, he also went 0 for 6 against Yamamoto last season, both regular season and World Series. Two 0 for 3 games.
Volpe needs to flip the script on Sunday for the Yankees to have a real shot at salvaging a win.
Prediction: One way or another, this one’s going to be close. It’s hard to imagine the Dodgers coming out swinging again after outscoring the Yankees 26-7 over the first two games of the season. Add Yarbrough’s offspeed approach along with Yamamoto’s season, and this game suddenly has lots of whiff potential.
Either way, and probably against better judgment, I’m picking the Yankees in a squeaker if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps. Take the moneyline, either the over or under, and add an Aaron Judge and/or Shohei Ohtani hitting parlay if you’re in the mood. Yankees 5, Dodgers 3 (possibly in extra innings).
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