The New York Yankees might have allowed three runs in the ninth inning, but still held on for a 6-3 win over the Royals on Wednesday. Aaron Judge hit his 25th home run of the season while Clarke Schmidt tossed six shutout innings with seven strikeouts.
On Thursday, the Bronx Bombers go for the sweep after completely outmatching Kansas City from start to finish. Rookie righty Will Warren will look to keep improving and growing on the mound, while the Royals hand the ball to Cy Young runner-up Seth Lugo.
The series is New York’s to lose at this point. It’s just a matter of the bats showing up and showing out again.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-150), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Can the Yankees swing their way to a sweep? We’ve seen the Yankees’ strategy with the Royals all week: Draw walks and score early. It’s the smart move because, as we’ve mentioned for the previous two games, Kansas City simply does not hit home runs. Vinnie Pasquantino’s home run power potential has yet to manifest, and MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. has taken a small step back too.
This leaves the door wide open for the Yankees to keep their foot on the gas and swing for the skies. Because though the Royals rank No. 6 in MLB with a 3.45 ERA, their team Stuff+ is only 99.
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA). Seth Lugo simply knows how to pitch. He was the AL Cy Young runner-up last year while throwing nine different pitches: a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, slurve, slider, cutter, changeup, sweeper, and a splitter. This year, just for good measure, he’s added a slow curve. Lugo is also 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 games (five starts) versus the Yankees.
However, we should also note Lugo is overachieving quite a bit in 2025. His expected ERA (xERA) is 5.22 and his FIP is 4.86. His ground ball rate (GB%) is down almost four-and-a-half points to 39.9%. He’s giving up over 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Will Warren, on the other hand, has gotten unlucky in the ERA department. His FIP is a respectable 3.78, so count on him having himself a strong game in KC if he avoids giving up walks. He’s allowed 4.40 BB/9.
X-Factor: Ben Rice. It’s been a slow fall back to the mean for Rice, who remains a fan favorite with strong underlying metrics. He’s batting .172 in June and his batting average is down to .239, but his hard-hit rate is in the 97th percentile and his average exit velocity is in the 98th.
This being said, Rice has slumped enough that he’s all but certainly losing at-bats to Giancarlo Stanton soon. The former MVP is on a rehab assignment at Double-A Somerset and claims to be healthy.
This means that against a right-handed soft-tosser like Lugo, Rice could put himself in line for a big game if he’s seeing the ball well.
Prediction. The numbers don’t lie, folks. This is very much the Yankees’ game to lose. Lugo is overachieving, the Royals aren’t hitting well, and own the worst walk rate (BB%) in baseball. Warren should feel free to be aggressive with his fastball and sinker as needed.
Go simple if you’re on New York sports betting apps. The Yankees’ run line, the over, an Aaron Judge hitting parlay, and the over on Warren’s strikeouts are all smart picks. Yankees 7, Royals 3.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: NY Yankees at KC Royals: Bronx Bombers seek clean season sweep of KC | Elite Sports NY