The New York Yankees’ upcoming three-game series in Houston is the start of what could be their season-defining (or sinking) gauntlet. The next two weeks feature this visit with the Astros, followed by three each at home versus the rival Blue Jays and MLB-best Tigers before one final weekend at Fenway with the Red Sox.
Cut to the AL East standings, and the Yankees and Red Sox each trail first-place Toronto by just 2.5 games. To say this stretch for the Yankees is vitally important carries as much weight as saying the Lexington Avenue Line is shutting down for two weeks. It’s a big, big deal that could make or break the Yankees’ playoff hopes.
A rivalry series with little to no room for mistakes. It’s only the first game of a three-game set, but New York must treat this game and the next two as must-wins.
Time: 8:10 pm ET
TV: YES, TBS
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-120), O/U 7.5
Key Storyline: Can Yankees hang in Houston again? Having Labor Day off wasn’t just a travel day/holiday for the Yankees. I like to think it was also for the most rabid fans to cool down and temper their expectations for this Houston series. First and foremost, while it’d be fun to watch, New York likely isn’t waltzing into Daikin Park and everyone suddenly goes into overdrive. This won’t be last year’s season-opening four-game sweep with Juan Soto happily along for the ride.
However, by the numbers, fortune could still favor the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees, for all their summer struggles, still have baseball’s most effective offense at a 118 wRC+. Houston’s is a very middling 101, so the Bronx series in August truly was the Astros catching the Yankees down bad. Devin Williams blew the game in extra innings one time, and the Yankees just never got rolling in a blowout loss. A comeback win happened in between.
Which Yankees will take the field this week? We’ll soon find out.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA) vs Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA). Speaking of Fried, he too is a big reason the Yankees struggled against the Astros in the Bronx last month. Clearly still pitching through a blister issue, Fried allowed four runs on eight hits and struck out three in just five innings on August 10.
Lucky for the Yankees, Fried has looked himself in his last two starts. The big lefty has a 0.69 ERA and 2.28 FIP heading into his start against the Astros, while Houston’s Valdez has famously struggled against the Yankees. He has a 6.46 ERA in five career starts.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. Ask anyone who’s ever played professional baseball, and they’ll all say the same thing at some point: Hitting is contagious. Such is the case for the Yankees, especially when Aaron Judge is swinging a hot bat. Going 1 for 16 in the most recent Red Sox series must have stirred something in the man. Since then, he’s hit .320 with three home runs and a 1.260 OPS.
But let’s not forget that Judge has notoriously struggled against the Astros in his career, batting just .199 in 50 games. Not even ten home runs and a .723 OPS cover that Judge struggles against Houston more than any other team he’s faced. Add batting .205 at Daikin Park, and Judge suddenly really needs a good series.
Reliable lineup regulars like Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. certainly help, but neither has Judge’s effect. This week would be a good time for the big guy’s engine to not stall out in Houston.
Prediction: The Astros might still have the Yankees’ number to some extent, but Tuesday’s matchup favors New York. Valdez already struggles with the Yankees, and breaking pitches haven’t been as effective this year compared to his sinker. Similarly, the streaky Bombers might still only be as good as Fried is. If he’s having a bad night, so will his teammates as they try to play catchup.
But taking everything into account, this one seems like the Yankees’ to lose. If you’re on New York Sports betting apps or New Jersey online casinos, there’s definitely action. The Yankees and the over seem safe, given Valdez’s track record against them. A Jose Altuve hitting parlay is also a good idea, given his being a .340 hitter versus the Yankees. Add one for Giancarlo Stanton too, maybe even a home run, with a lefty on the mound. Some run support and a rested bullpen later, the Yankees take round 1. Yankees 6, Astros 4.
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