The New York Yankees strolled into Daikin Park on Tuesday night and made it very clear: losing Juan Soto doesn’t mean the Bronx Bombers burn out in Houston anymore.
Two Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers and a Trent Grisham grand slam into the Crawford Boxes later, New York won 7-1. Kicking off a set of 12 important games with a blowout win against a longtime rival in the best way.
Wednesday brings a different type of matchup. Two youngsters toe the slab for both teams with high playoff stakes. The Yankees trail first-place Toronto by just 2.5 games. Houston, on the other hand, is clinging to a three-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West.
The stakes are high on both sides, and today could be a nail-biter compared to Tuesday’s knockout.
Time: 8:10 pm ET
TV: Amazon Prime
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-130), O/U 9.5
Key Storyline: The Costanza Redemption. The last time the Yankees faced Houston’s 32-year-old journeyman righty Jason Alexander, back on August 10 at Yankee Stadium, the man just went full ace mode. Entering the game at 2-1 with a 5.97 ERA, Alexander pitched six shutout innings of one-hit ball with three walks and strikeouts each. New York lost 7-1 and just couldn’t figure him out. Needless to say, don’t expect Alexander to score an invitation to Aaron Judge’s Festivus party in December.
The Yankees need to treat this next handful of games as must-win, this one especially. Showing up with only one run and three total hits again isn’t going to cut it. Look for the Bombers to be aggressive early and often.
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren (8-6, 4.30 ERA) vs Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.61 ERA). Pitching opposite Alexander is Warren, who’s proved quite the reliable righty when he has confidence in his fastball. Keeping the walks down has also helped, despite issuing nearly four BB/9 on the year. The question with him tonight is not only if he’ll have control of his four-seamer and sinker, but if he’ll have his sweeper working. That means generating whiff after whiff against the aggressive Astros.
Similarly, the Yankees need to be ready for two things from Alexander: His sinker and changeup. Hunt for those up in the zone, and the Bronx Bombers just might be able to score some runs early. Yes, Alexander went 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA in August, but the underlying metrics tell the same old story: He’s overachieving, and the Yankees should be ready to deliver that message.
X-Factor: Ben Rice. A righty on the mound for Houston all but ensures Giancarlo Stanton will be on the bench and Ben Rice will be in at one of catcher, first base, or DH. The rookie had his best month of the season in August, batting .283 with a .905 OPS plus six home runs. On the year, the former Dartmouth standout is batting .242 with 22 home runs and an .817 OPS.
What’s crazy is that theoretically, Rice should be having a much better season. His hard contact rate is nearly 41% and ranks 11th in all of baseball, but his BABIP is only .261 compared to isolated power at .240. He’s got the potential to be an extra-base hit machine if it weren’t for the rough luck.
He’ll boost New York’s chances easily if he can either find the gaps or sneak a couple line drives into the Crawford Boxes.
Prediction: We said it before and we’ll say it again. Jason Alexander is overachieving and we shouldn’t expect another shutdown outing from him. Similarly, Warren could be in for a rough night himself if the Astros’ follow the Dodgers’ plan from May 31: swinging early and often. This time, without getting into the nitty gritty of how to bet, we’ll just predict a simple score. Yankees 8, Astros 7
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