Ryan Yarbrough’s oblique injury means a hole in the Yankees rotation. Thus, Triple-A righty Allan Winans will take the mound for his 2025 MLB debut in Cincinnati on Monday.
These two teams have an interesting history. New York and Cincy have faced off in the World Series three times, with the Yankees winning two of them. In 1993, talented outfielder Roberto Kelly was traded to the Reds for future Yankee favorite Paul O’Neill.
Moreover, last season, during a rough stretch, the Yankees were swept by the Reds at Yankee Stadium. It was the start of the Bronx Bombers losing six of seven amidst their worst run of the season. How ironic that New York visits Cincinnati not long after slogging through a six-game losing streak.
This time, things are different. The Reds are in fourth place, but also in a competitive division. Manager Terry “Tito” Francona, knows the Yankees well from his days managing Boston and Cleveland.
Of course, that only means that despite their record, expect the Reds to play the Yankees a little harder this week.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-125), O/U 10.5
Key Storyline: Allan Winans, ahoy! Ryan Yarbrough hitting the injured list with a strained oblique means the Yankees dipping into their minor league arms, making Winans the obvious choice. The 29-year-old righty was optioned to minor league camp after posting a 5.02 ERA in five spring training games, but has since torn up the minors. In 11 games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (nine starts), Winans is 7-0 with a stellar 0.90 ERA and has allowed just one home run in 50 innings.
Opposing hitters are also batting just .211 off of Winans, and his FIP is a solid 2.41. We’ll soon see if his success in the minors is exactly that, or indicative of something bigger on the way.
Pitching Matchup: Allan Winans (0-0, Season debut) vs. Nick Lodolo (5-5, 3.71 ERA). Something to keep in mind with Winans is that, for the most part, he’s a career minor leaguer. He had two cups of coffee with the Braves in 2023 and ’24, going 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA. He’s now back in the bigs, and in a notorious hitter’s park.
Enter Lodolo, one of Cincinnati’s better pitchers on an otherwise middling staff. He not only has a four-pitch mix (Fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup), but relies on each one equally. The Yankees should be looking for anything up in the zone and be ready to drive the ball to Kentucky.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. The Yankee captain has been in a hell of a slump and is batting .194 with just two solo home runs in his last ten games. His sample size against the Reds is also small, but the numbers jump enough to inspire hope for his power swing again Cincy. He’s a .324 career hitter with three homers in ten career games versus the Reds, and .545 in three games at Great American Ballpark.
The reigning MVP is in for a productive day if he’s committed to hunting fastballs and doesn’t get burned chasing the changeup.
Prediction: Anything can happen in baseball, particularly when someone comes to the show after starring in the minors all season. What’s more is that of Winans’ two starts with Atlanta last year, one was against the Reds. He allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings, not exactly encouraging.
However, this is a deep and healthy Yankees lineup. Their 121 team wRC+ is second in MLB behind the Dodgers’ 124. Thus, if you find yourself on New York sports betting apps today, betting the over is probably smart. Don’t worry about the run or money lines. Add a Judge parlay, and maybe one for Cody Bellinger as well. He’s a .303 career hitter with a .926 OPS against the Reds, and .330 at Great American Ballpark. Intuition swings this one to the Yankees. Yankees 8, Reds 5.
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