The New York Yankees lost two of three to the Red Sox last weekend, and answered with a subsequent three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals. The Bronx Bombers earned it too, having eked out a tight 1-0 victory to complete the sweep Wednesday.
It’s now out of the frying pan and into the fire, on the Yankees’ end. They get the Red Sox again this weekend, and the opening pitching matchup isn’t exactly ideal. Boston’s also still running hot since last weekend, having just taken two of three from the Rays. The Red Sox have also won four of their last five.
The Yankees would love nothing more than to keep their momentum riding high in Beantown. However, that all depends on their pitching keeping runs off the board, unlike the last series. In the Bronx, Boston outscored the Yankees 27-23, highly uncharacteristic for the Yankees’ pitching staff.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES, MLB Network
Betting Line: Yankees +1.5 (+125), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: Can the Yankees’ silence Boston’s bats this time around? The Red Sox are two games under .500 and fourth in the AL East, 9.5 games behind the Yankees. However, their offense is actually better than you’d expect. Boston ranks in MLB’s Top 10 with a wRC+ of 106. That’s only above average, but a +18 run differential is a pleasant surprise, especially given star free agent signee Alex Bregman on the injured list.
The one flaw in Boston’s lineup is that they simply strike out too much, owning the fourth-worst strikeout rate (K%) in the league to go with a middling walk rate (BB%). This won’t be easy, especially with Yarbrough on the mound
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Yarbrough (3-1, 4.17 ERA) vs Garrett Crochet (6-4, 2.35 ERA). Speaking of Yarbrough, he’d rather forget his last start which just happened to come against the Red Sox back on June 7. The soft-tossing lefty was tagged for eight earned runs on nine hits in four innings, less than a week after he shut down the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. This wasn’t exactly a surprise, as Yarbrough had a 7.09 career ERA versus Boston before the rough outing bloated it to 7.65.
However, it’s not as though Crochet shut down or otherwise silenced the Yankees. He struck out nine, but still allowed five runs on six hits in six innings. The strategy of jumping on his fastballs and cutters up in the zone clearly helped, so look for more of that from New York today. On Yarbrough’s end, just pray his breaking pitches are moving enough that Boston can only make soft contact.
X-Factor: Aaron Judge. The Yankees lost 10-7 the last time they faced Crochet, and Judge was 0 for 4. This wasn’t exactly surprising, the two-time MVP has always performed a bit more modestly against Boston. Judge is a .254 career hitter against the Red Sox, plus 31 home runs.
At Fenway Park, however, it’s a different story. The Yankee captain has only hit .211 in the shadow of the Green Monster. He’ll need to up that number on Friday if the Yankees want any true shot at beating Crochet.
Prediction: This is a tough call, especially on New York sports betting apps. Yarbrough’s pitch selection isn’t a good matchup against Boston’s aggressive lineup, but will he be so bad as to allow nine earned runs again? Win or lose, that’s unlikely along with Crochet giving up five runs once more. Even so, count on this game to be high scoring again, but with New York pulling away late. Yankees 9, Boston 5
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