- The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in a critical Game 2 of the AL Wild Card series, facing a 1-0 series deficit.
- The pitching matchup features New York’s Carlos Rodón against Boston’s Brayan Bello, a duel with starkly contrasting recent history against these opponents.
The Yankees, with their backs against the wall, turn to starter Carlos Rodón to stave off elimination after loading the bases in the bottom of the ninth on Monday night, with no outs, yet failing to score. After a stellar regular season, Rodón looks to reverse his recent fortunes against a Boston lineup that has had his number in 2025. The Red Sox, holding a 1-0 series advantage after a tactical 3-1 victory in the opener, counter with Brayan Bello, a pitcher who has systematically dismantled the Yankees’ offense this year.
Tuesday’s opener exposed a critical vulnerability for New York: a bullpen that buckled under late-game pressure. Despite a strong start, the Yankees’ relief corps surrendered the lead, leaving the offense unable to mount a comeback. Now, the pressure shifts to Rodón to deliver a deep, commanding performance and hand a lead to a potentially-shaky bullpen. For Boston, the formula is clear: rely on Bello’s groundball-inducing prowess to neutralize the power bats in the Yankees’ lineup and turn the game over to a confident and well-rested relief staff.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Bet Type | Boston Red Sox Odds | New York Yankees Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-154) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Moneyline | +150 | -179 |
| Total Runs | Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125) |
Odds as of October 1, 2025 from ESPN Bet.
The odds position the Yankees as solid home favorites, despite dropping the series opener. The moneyline price of -179 implies a significant edge, largely tied to their must-win desperation and Rodón’s ace-like performance throughout the regular season. However, the vig-free implied probabilities paint a slightly closer picture:
Moneyline (vig-free): New York Yankees ~61.6%, Boston Red Sox ~38.4%
The total of 7.5 runs, with the under juiced to -125, reflects respect for both starting pitchers and the heightened intensity of postseason baseball, which often leads to tighter, lower-scoring affairs. The run line offers plus-money value on the Yankees to win by multiple runs, a bet on their powerful offense finally breaking through against Bello.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting market has shown subtle but telling movement leading up to Game 2. The Yankees opened as -175 favorites on the moneyline and have seen that line tick up to -179, indicating that early money, likely from the public, is backing the home team to bounce back. Conversely, the total has seen a significant shift toward the under. After opening with the over at -105 and the under at -115, the line has moved to Over +105 and Under -125. This 10-cent move suggests that sharper money is anticipating a pitcher’s duel, influenced by Bello’s effectiveness against New York and the general trend of low-scoring playoff games.
This movement on the total aligns with powerful betting trends, as the under has been a consistent theme for both clubs in relevant situations. The Yankees’ offense has struggled to produce runs at home, while the Red Sox have played in tight, low-scoring contests as underdogs. The slight shift in the Yankees’ moneyline favor appears driven more by betting volume and their home-field advantage than by a fundamental matchup analysis, potentially creating value on the visiting Red Sox.
Injury Reports
Yankees
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | IF | Forearm | Day-to-Day | His absence would remove a key source of speed and power from the top of the lineup. |
| Gerrit Cole | P | Elbow | D60 | Ace pitcher out for the season, a major blow to the rotation’s overall depth. |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | IF | Ankle | D60 | Versatile defender’s absence limits late-game strategic options. |
| Clarke Schmidt | P | Forearm | D60 | Loss of a reliable starter weakens the back end of the rotation and long relief options. |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | P | Back | D15 | Key high-leverage reliever missing, putting more strain on an already taxed bullpen. |
| Brent Headrick | P | Forearm | D15 | Bullpen depth is further tested without this left-handed option. |
| Jake Cousins | P | Elbow | D60 | Another arm lost from the bullpen for the season. |
Red Sox
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Potential Impact / Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triston Casas | IF | Knee | D60 | Key power bat missing from the heart of the order all season. |
| Tanner Houck | P | Flexor | D60 | Significant loss from the starting rotation, impacting pitching depth. |
| Jordan Hicks | P | Shoulder | D15 | High-leverage reliever unavailable, forcing others into more prominent roles. |
| Vaughn Grissom | IF | Foot | D60 | Solid infield bat and defender out for the season. |
| Roman Anthony | OF | Oblique | D10 | Young power-hitting outfielder’s absence is a blow to the lineup’s depth. |
| Kutter Crawford | P | Knee | D60 | Another starting pitcher lost for the year, straining the entire pitching staff. |
| Brennan Bernardino | P | Lat | D15 | Key left-handed reliever out, limiting matchup options out of the bullpen. |
| Josh Winckowski | P | Elbow | D60 | Bullpen depth takes a hit with his long-term absence. |
| Liam Hendriks | P | Hip | D60 | Veteran closer’s experience is missed in the back end of the bullpen. |
| Dustin May | P | Elbow | D15 | A valuable arm is unavailable for the postseason run. |
| Marcelo Mayer | IF | Wrist | D60 | Promising young infielder shelved for the season. |
| Patrick Sandoval | P | Elbow | D60 | Long-term injury has kept him out all year. |
| Luis Guerrero | P | Elbow | D60 | Bullpen arm lost for the season. |
| Richard Fitts | P | Arm | D15 | Pitching depth further eroded. |
| Hunter Dobbins | P | ACL | D60 | Another long-term pitching injury for the club. |
Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History
Red Sox Career Statistics vs. Carlos Rodón
Last 10 years | Games analyzed: 7 | Total at-bats: 103
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | .333 | .429 | .750 | 1.179 |
| Connor Wong | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .400 | .455 | .800 | 1.255 |
| Carlos Narváez | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .500 | .625 | 1.167 | 1.792 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .273 | .333 | .545 | .879 |
| Trevor Story | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .222 | .364 | .444 | .808 |
| Alex Bregman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 | .667 | .500 | 1.167 |
| Jarren Duran | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .133 | .188 | .200 | .388 |
| Romy González | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .077 | .143 | .154 | .297 |
| TOTALS | 86 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 17 | .244 | .330 | .477 | .807 |
Yankees Career Statistics vs. Brayan Bello
Last 5 years | Games analyzed: 11 | Total at-bats: 126
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .571 | .667 | 1.000 | 1.667 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .600 | .875 | 1.475 |
| Anthony Volpe | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .375 | .375 | .625 | 1.000 |
| Cody Bellinger | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .333 | .286 | .619 |
| Ben Rice | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .300 | .300 | .400 | .700 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .650 |
| Aaron Judge | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | .125 | .364 | .188 | .551 |
| Austin Wells | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .143 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| TOTALS | 93 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 19 | .258 | .364 | .387 | .751 |
Game 2 Batter Props
| PLAYER | HITS | TOTAL BASES | HOME RUNS | RBIs | RUNS SCORED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 (O -228 | U +166) | 1.5 (O +115 | U -156) | 0.5 (+309) | 0.5 (O +149 | U -203) | 0.5 (O -114 | U -119) |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 (O -153 | U +115) | 0.5 (O -150 | U +108) | 0.5 (+391) | 0.5 (O +166 | U -227) | 0.5 (O +131 | U -181) |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 (O -202 | U +149) | 0.5 (O -200 | U +142) | 0.5 (+558) | 0.5 (O +165 | U -228) | 0.5 (O +133 | U -183) |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 (O -213 | U +156) | 0.5 (O -192 | U +140) | 0.5 (+556) | 0.5 (O +203 | U -294) | 0.5 (O +135 | U -188) |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 (O -180 | U +135) | 0.5 (O -194 | U +138) | 0.5 (+523) | 0.5 (O +221 | U -316) | 0.5 (O +146 | U -201) |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 (O -152 | U +115) | 0.5 (O -143 | U +105) | 0.5 (+830) | 0.5 (O +251 | U -368) | 0.5 (O +185 | U -261) |
MLB batter props as of October 1, 2025 from consensus lines.
Game 2 Pitcher Props
| PITCHER | STRIKEOUTS | EARNED RUNS | WALKS ALLOWED | HITS ALLOWED | INNINGS PITCHED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodón (NYY) | 5.5 (O -142 | U +109) | 1.5 (O -133 | U -102) | 1.5 (O -123 | U -109) | 3.5 (O -179 | U +129) | 5.1 (O +101 | U -141) |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 (O +118 | U -155) | 2.5 (O +103 | U -140) | 2.5 (O +150 | U -206) | 4.5 (O +116 | U -162) | 4.2 (O -125 | U -108) |
MLB pitcher props as of October 1, 2025 from consensus lines.
There appears to be significant value in the pitcher prop market for this matchup. For Carlos Rodón, the Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-133) is compelling. The Red Sox lineup has a collective .807 OPS against him, and he has allowed a combined eight runs in nine innings over two starts against them this season. His strikeout line of 5.5 is also intriguing, as Boston hitters have managed to put the ball in play against him, limiting his punchout totals.
For Brayan Bello, the Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-140) stands out. He’s posted a sparkling 1.89 ERA against the Yankees over three starts in 2025, and key hitters like Aaron Judge (.125 AVG) have struggled mightily against him. His strikeout prop of 4.5, with plus money on the over (+118), is also worth a look. While he is not a prolific strikeout artist, the Yankees’ lineup is prone to chasing and could help him exceed that modest total.
Picks & Prediction
All signs point to a tight, low-scoring affair where the underdog holds significant value. While the Yankees are playing at home with their season on the line, the pitching matchup heavily favors the Sox. Carlos Rodón, despite an excellent 18-9 regular season record, has been vulnerable against Boston. The Red Sox hitters have consistently forced him into high pitch counts and have slugged effectively against his fastball. His recent dip in velocity is a concerning sign against a lineup that makes consistent contact.
On the other side, Bello has been a Yankee killer. His sinker/changeup combination has induced a groundball rate over 56% against New York, neutralizing their primary strength: the long ball at Yankee Stadium. Key offensive threats like Judge have looked lost against him, and there’s little reason to expect that to change in a high-pressure playoff environment.
Several betting trends reinforce a pro-Boston and pro-under stance. The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five road games against teams with a winning record, showcasing their ability to win in tough environments. Furthermore, the under has been a dominant trend for both teams, with the over failing to hit in each of the last four Red Sox games as an underdog and in four of the last five Yankees games overall. With the Yankees’ bullpen showing cracks and their offense struggling to score against Bello, Boston is well-positioned to cover the run line and potentially win outright.
Picks:
- Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-154)
- Under 7.5 Runs (-125)
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+150)
Public Betting Splits
| Bet Type | Handle % | Bet % |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ||
| New York Yankees | 99.63% | 70.35% |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.37% | 29.65% |
| Run Line | ||
| New York Yankees -1.5 | 72.45% | 81.27% |
| Boston Red Sox +1.5 | 27.55% | 18.73% |
| Total Runs | ||
| Over 7.5 | 69.46% | 63.87% |
| Under 7.5 | 30.54% | 36.13% |
The public is heavily backing the Yankees to bounce back, with over 70% of moneyline tickets and 81% of run line tickets on the home team. Similarly, the public is leaning towards the over. This creates a classic “public vs. sharps” scenario, as our analysis and the line movement on the total suggest value lies with the underdog Red Sox and the under.
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disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this story
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