The biggest offseason question for the Yankees has been whether they’ll re-sign Cody Bellinger. General manager Brian Cashman is on record about the club’s interest in doing so, and they’ve reportedly made at least two formal contract offers.
It doesn’t appear that Bellinger is on the verge of accepting a deal, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that the sides don’t seem close to an agreement, though talks are continuing. Contract length could be a holdup. Kuty wrote that Bellinger and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were likely looking for a six- or seven-year contract. In an MLB Network appearance, Jon Morosi also suggested that Bellinger continued to seek a deal in the seven-year range. Morosi added that the Yankees unsurprisingly preferred a four- or five-year commitment.
Most external projections forecast a five- or six-year deal. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger is headed into his age-30 season. There’s precedent for players commanding seven-plus years at that age, but the most recent free agent hitter to do so was Brandon Nimmo in 2022. There hasn’t even been a six-year contract for a free agent bat in his 30s since the Nimmo deal, but Alex Bregman (who was a year older at the time) rejected a six-year offer from the Tigers last winter.
Bellinger is coming off a fantastic first season in the Bronx. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs across 656 plate appearances. He cut his already low strikeout rate to a personal-best 13.7% clip. Bellinger’s bat speed and exit velocities — which prevented him from commanding a long-term contract two years ago — remain middling. His left-handed bat was perfectly suited to Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 of his home runs. His .241/.301/.414 batting line on the road is essentially league average.
While that wouldn’t be much of an issue for the Yankees, they may feel that’ll give other teams pause. We’re only a year removed from Bellinger having essentially no trade value when he was signed for two years and $52.5MM. New York acquired him from the Cubs for journeyman pitcher Cody Poteet, whom Chicago cut at the end of Spring Training. The only cost for the Yankees was taking on all but $5MM on Bellinger’s deal. Trade talks were complicated by an opt-out clause in his contract, but it’s notable that teams weren’t eager to sign up for even two years at $25MM annually last offseason. A six-plus year commitment at a similar annual value is a significant ask.
Do teams other than the Yankees feel Bellinger is a dramatically different player than he was a year ago? His camp will surely argue that his success in New York — on top of his previous work in big markets in Los Angeles and Chicago — should move the needle. Bellinger also isn’t attached to draft compensation, as he was in 2023 when he declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs.
His results have outpaced his more middling batted ball metrics in three consecutive seasons. Bellinger is never going to recapture the ferocious power he had before he injured his right shoulder during the 2020 postseason. He has reinvented himself as an elite contact bat, and while his home/road splits aren’t encouraging, his platoon numbers are more impressive.
Bellinger is a .329/.371/.546 hitter against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. Among lefty hitters with 250+ plate appearances in that time, only Yordan Alvarez has a superior slugging mark. Bellinger trails only Alvarez and Juan Soto in on-base percentage. Teams can comfortably pencil Bellinger in as an everyday player in either corner outfield spot, and he’s an option for at least semi-regular center field work.