The Yankees’ payroll is a big topic of discussion, as the organization has not really signaled the way it’s going to spend on its roster for the 2026 season.
We saw them bring back Trent Grisham on a one-year $22.025 million contract and sources have told us here at Empire Sports Media that Tatsuya Imai will be a big target for the club this offseason.
Cody Bellinger is a player whom is widely believed to be of interest for the Yankees as well, but that would require the team to commit at least $50 million in payroll for 2026 based on contract projections if they want to land both.
It would push the team’s payroll above the $330 million mark in the Luxury Tax department, but is that really possible and do people inside the organization consider it a reality?
Running a $330 million payroll is not a complete no-go for the Yankees, and in the case of Tatsuya Imai and Cody Bellinger, I believe the team could be gearing up to land both this winter.
Tatsuya Imai Could Be the Key To A Massive Yankees’ Spending Spree
The Yankees are not the biggest spender and baseball which makes a lot of fans upset, rightfully so given the franchise’s value and history, but that doesn’t mean they’re cheap.
It’s a pretty big gap between not spending and being the Los Angeles Dodgers, and if you look at their Luxury Tax payroll annually since 2021, it’s been an arrow up for five-straight years:
Hal Steinbrenner is an opportunistic spender, he will try and splurge on players who either provide outlier value on the field or are stars who bring more than just wins to the table.
Tatsuya Imai isn’t Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Juan Soto, but he is an extremely talented pitcher whom I believe the Yankees would be able to get tons of national and international attention from by rostering.
YES Network reported that they experienced a 5% increase in viewership on a game-to-game basis in 2025 from 2024, and that’s despite Gerrit Cole missing the whole year and Juan Soto leaving for the Mets.
Adding a Japanese star to the rotation would all-but-gurantee that YES would experience an increase in streams from Japan, and it should be noted that the Yankees own 26% (majority share) of YES Network.
More viewers from Japan also means more incentive for Japanese advertisers to want their brands plastered in Yankee Stadium, another source of additional revenue for the Yankees.
You won’t see the Yankees get > $100 million annually in revenue like the Dodgers have with Shohei Ohtani, but the two-way phenom has increased the draw for Japanese stars in MLB.
All of the money-making opportunities I’ve mentioned are mostly independant of on-field performance as well, which brings up the key reason why you’d sign Imai: he’s really good at baseball.
His fastball is a big part of this, as his arm angle is estimated to be between 20-25 degrees, and four-seamers from that arm angle had a +0.4 Run Value per 100 with a 24.5% Whiff% in 2025.
Four-seamers on average had just a -.02 Run Value per 100 and a 21.7% Whiff% this past year, so lower arm angles tend to correlate with success on that pitch.
The slider Imai possesses is a wrong-way slider, further adding to his uniqueness as the pitch tunnels well off of the heater and generated a Whiff% nearing 50% in 2025.
Splitters were front-and-center in October, and Tatsuya Imai features a quality one as well to round out his repertoire, having other offspeed shapes including a vulcan changeup to make him a real swing-and-miss weapon.
Despite what many think, the Yankees’ rotation does not project to be a strength in 2026, as FanGraphs has them as a middle-of-the-pack staff in both WAR and FIP.
The Yankees’ rotation was 16th in K-BB% and 12th in xFIP, pitching metrics that are more stable on a year-to-year basis than ERA due to how little it relies on high-variance stats such as team defense behind a pitcher or HR/FB%.
Furthermore, it’s not exactly the safest bet in the world to hope that Luis Gil, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodon all remain healthy in 2026, and for Cole/Rodon, they’re coming back from major surgery at an older age.
Both have seen declines in their fastball velocity and overall swing-and-miss numbers, so Imai would give them a 28-year-old starter who can develop into an ace if they make the right adjustments with him.
I’m sold on Tatsuya Imai as a swing-and-miss artist who sees his NPB-best single-season Whiff Rate (32%) from 2025 translate extremely well to MLB.
You’ve got a pitcher with a fastball like Joe Ryan’s, a slider like Trey Yesavage’s, and a splitter to round out that repertoire available in the middle of his prime who brings you TONS of viewership…this is a no-brainer for the Yankees.
From what I’m hearing, Hal Steinbrenner sees that too. He seems very much on-board with reeling in Imai this winter.
Why Cody Bellinger Could Remain In-Play For the Yankees
You all know I’d prefer Kyle Tucker, but I still remain convinced that the Yankees are more likely to bring back Cody Bellinger instead.
As things stand right now, both Depth Charts and Steamer project the Bronx Bombers to have the best position player group in baseball, so a return of Bellinger would reinforce their status as a strong hitting group.
It’s not just the offense that would remain strong, but what you’d expect them to lose in OPS from 2025 to 2026 they can try to make up with their defense, which underperformed projections.
We expected the team to be a top-10 defensive group, but Anthony Volpe and Trent Grisham took massive stepbacks defensively that were worsened by injury.
Bringing Cody Bellinger back and getting healthy versions of those two players should improve the team defense, with first base being the only position where I’d expect negative defense with Ben Rice there.
The Yankees would project for a 110.5 wRC+ if they were to retain Cody Bellinger, for context Steamer projected no team other than the Dodgers (112) for a wRC+ above 110 going into 2025.
I also calculated this using every single player the model had a listed projection for, including players such as Brando Mayea who have yet to even reach Single-A.
Last season the Yankees’ projected for a 107 wRC+ on Steamer, so while they’d be expected to regress from their league-leading 119 wRC+, they’d be in the same range as the Blue Jays with Bo Bichette back (110.1).
Cody Bellinger isn’t someone I’d expect to be ruled out of the Yankees’ offseason plans if they brought in Tatsuya Imai, who could benefit the team’s bottom line for reasons beyond on-field performance.
Most importantly, the Yankees would just have a really good roster that can field the ball, pitch well, and hit the ball hard consistently.
Add some bullpen support and maybe a fourth outfielder and you have a well-rounded group that can take down anybody in the American League if healthy.