The Yankees continue to remain engaged with Scott Boras and his camp over outfielder Cody Bellinger, whom the team is locked-in on bringing back for 2026.
We are not looking at a pursuit that has the same fervor as the ones to retain Aaron Judge or Juan Soto however, a reflection of the fact that Bellinger is simply not a superstar talent.
Jack Curry on YES Hot Stove has noted this numerous times, as the prevailing feeling inside the organization is that they want him back but on their own terms.
What should those terms be is the question; how much is Cody Bellinger worth on this market and how far should the Yankees extend themselves to sign him?
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What is Cody Bellinger’s Status In the League Relative to Others?
Over the course of Cody Bellinger’s career, his standing relative to other position players has fluctuated wildly, as even when he was a star in Los Angeles there were some notable ups and downs.
Bellinger smashed 39 home runs in 132 games with a 138 wRC+ in his rookie season but soon regressed to a 120 wRC+ with 25 home runs in 162 games, having a big drop-off in his batted ball quality.
Then in 2019 he would win MVP with a ridiculous 161 wRC+ and 47 home runs, and while some would peg that on the juiced balls from that season, there was evidence of these rocket balls being used in 2017 and 2018.
Over the last three seasons, Cody Bellinger has varied from an All-Star caliber player to just an above-average regular, which gives teams (including the Yankees) a ton of hesitancy about a long-term contract.
What I will say about Cody Bellinger is that the player he has become over the last three seasons seems to be one he can continue replicating, relying on incredible barrel control to generate tons of pulled flyballs to right field.
SEAGER, a metric that measures swing decisions, graded Cody Bellinger out as a plus swing-decision maker, ranking in the 66th Percentile despite high chase rates.
The reason is because Bellinger can hit pitches out of the zone better than the league-average hitter can, scooping up low pitches and hitting them over the right field porch or slapping other pitches to the left side of the field.
It’s a very hitter-ish profile that appeals to some older-school fans, but there’s a science behind it and I believe this is an engineered approach that fits Yankee Stadium very well.
Steamer currently projects a 116 wRC+ for Cody Bellinger, but if he were to sign with the Yankees, its likely that this projection would improve once it bakes in the Bronx’s incredibly favorable dimensions for his swing.
Trent Grisham’s Steamer projection improved from a 106 wRC+ to a 110 after he was re-signed, so I’d expect Bellinger to push to around the 120 wRC+ mark for the 2026 season.
Based on the projected offensive output, Cody Bellinger is expected to be the best left fielder in baseball arguably, as his defense is superb in the corner outfield.
He owns a +21 Fielding Run Value and +37 Defensive Runs Saved in a little over 2,600 innings between left field and right field, and on a per-1,000 inning basis that would make him a Gold Glove contender.
You have to bake in an athletic decline in the coming years since Bellinger is turning 31 next July, but he’s seen a relatively steady Sprint Speed over the last five years which is a good sign that he’s not already in decline.
If Cody Bellinger is to produce a +5 in left field, a 120 wRC+, and be a slightly better than average runner, we could be looking at a ~4 WAR player in 2026.
He’s a good player; not a consistent All-Star but someone who can be the 2nd or 3rd best player on a title contender build around having depth over being frontloaded, which is how the Yankees were built in 2025.
How Much Should Too Much Be For the Yankees?
Brandon Nimmo’s eight-year $162 million contract should serve as a warning sign for teams across the league, as he was a fast, powerful, and patient left-handed bat who still played a solid centerfield when he signed the contract.
Fast-forward just three years later, and he was traded with five years and $100 million remaining on the deal for an aging Marcus Semien.
Paying for Jung Hoo Lee (six years, $113 milliom) has also been a bit of a mess for the Giants, who are paying over $18 million a year for a solid-not-great centerfielder with a rapidly declining defensive profile.
Contracts aren’t a nightmare when you’re paying ~$12 million per WAR, but rather when teams end up having to cut players or move them for other underwater contracts before the deal expires.
The Yankees should focus on a 4-5 year deal for Cody Bellinger, offering him around $28 million a year for the next five years as their max offer if pushed to that point.
If Scott Boras rejects the offer and says he’s going to take another offer from a different team unless they extend a sixth year at the same rate?
Then you move on.