Less than five months ago, the New York Yankees came as close as possible to what would’ve been championship No. 28 for the franchise. They fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games, and the offseason that ensued was a bustling one. The 2025 Yankees look extremely different from last year’s squad, with some helpful acquisitions and painful losses. From losing Juan Soto to signing Ryan Yarbrough and everything in between, this Yankees team has the potential to be a strong contender in the AL East.
But, just as easily, things could go very wrong, and New York could find itself missing the postseason for the second time in three years. It depends on several factors, but as each season proves repeatedly, expect the unexpected and don’t count anything (or anyone) out. With that said, here are five big predictions for the Yankees in 2025.
5. Ben Rice Has a Huge Breakout Season
Fans may not recall Rice too fondly based on how he ended things last season, but there are plenty of reasons to suggest that he will be much better in his first full season. Hitting 7 home runs with a .613 OPS over 50 games, Rice had an OPS of .401 and just 8 hits over his last 26 games. Jarring as those stats may be, it’s important to have some context here. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year sat at .186, well below the league average of ~.300. On top of that, according to Baseball Savant, his xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) was .340. What does this all mean? In simpler terms, it means that Rice was highly unlucky.
The 26-year-old has already proven that those numbers were likely a fluke. This spring, he hit .246/.324/.525 with 5 homers and 10 RBIs over 69 plate appearances. With Giancarlo Stanton out indefinitely, Rice is almost guaranteed to have an everyday spot at DH, perhaps occasionally filling in at first base or catcher. With 50 games of big league experience already under his belt, don’t be surprised if the left-hander takes advantage of the short porch and has himself a solid season.
4. Anthony Volpe Wins Another Gold Glove
Considering how much flak Volpe gets for his lackluster offensive numbers over his first two seasons, his fielding has gone largely underappreciated. Winning a Gold Glove as a rookie in 2023, the 23-year-old arguably had an even better defensive season in ’24. Though he lost to Bobby Witt Jr, Volpe’s presence at shortstop gave stability to a mostly incompetent Yankee infield last season. With Jazz Chisholm back in his natural position and Paul Goldschmidt locking down first base, the New Jersey native will have much more defensive support. Turning just 24 years old and entering his third season, there’s no reason to doubt that Volpe will only get even better at shortstop (though he should prioritize improving his hitting).
3. The Rotation Will (Probably) Be Fine
Sure, it’s not nearly as strong as it would’ve been had Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil been healthy. But there’s no cause for too much concern, at least not yet. Max Fried is a fine addition (granted, he stays healthy), and if Carlos Rodon can continue his dominance from the second half of last season, things may not be so bleak at the top of the rotation. Clarke Schmidt is also injured, but should return within a relatively short timetable. Marcus Stroman, whom the Yankees must surely be glad they didn’t trade away, finished with an ERA of 4.31 over 29 starts last season; he wasn’t great, but it was his first season since 2018 in which his ERA eclipsed the 4.00 mark, so there’s reason to believe that he will once again be a solid fourth starter.
The question marks come from the bottom of the rotation. Veteran Carlos Carrasco and rookie Will Warren are all but locked in as the final occupants of the rotation. Though both have shown promise in Spring Training, it’s unclear whether or not that success will translate into the regular season. Carrasco, 38, had a 5.64 ERA over 21 starts with Cleveland last season, and Warren struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last season. Essentially, until Gil returns, these two have to anchor the back of the rotation. Otherwise, it could very well sink.
2. They’ll Make the Postseason
Note that making the postseason doesn’t necessarily mean winning the division. The Yankees are going to have some trouble trying to repeat as AL East Champions for the first time since 2011-2012. The Boston Red Sox currently look like their biggest threat, with their additions of Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, and Walker Buehler complementing their core of young position players, making them much more formidable on both sides of the ball. The Baltimore Orioles, who lost former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to free agency but added depth to the outfield and rotation, will be a tough team to beat and arguably better than New York on paper.
Still, the Yankees will not go down without a fight. Suppose Aaron Judge stays healthy and has yet another otherworldly season. In that case, it’s tough imagining them finishing below .500. If Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt can turn back the clock just a little bit, the lineup won’t look nearly as shallow. Starting pitching is still a concern, though, and the Yankees’ postseason hopes hinge almost entirely on the performance of a Gerrit Cole-less rotation.
1. Aaron Judge Wins His Third MVP
Had it not been for the concrete wall in Dodger Stadium, Judge might be chasing his fourth MVP this season. It’s truly a marvel to witness what Judge has done in these past few seasons. Over 421 games over the past three seasons, Judge has hit .304/.433/.674 (209 OPS+) with 157 homers, 350 RBI’s, 334 runs, and a brWAR of 26.2. He won last year’s AL MVP unanimously, and probably still would have won even if he’d stopped playing after August. What’s even crazier is that Judge hit .207 with a .754 OPS in March/April, ending the season with an OPS of 1.159. No one can deny his greatness despite his lackluster performance in the postseason.
If he does win another MVP, it won’t matter if he doesn’t also amend his playoff reputation. His historically bad stretch last October raised a lot of questions concerning his legacy, and the only way to fix it would be to lead the Yankees to a World Series title. If he can do that while winning another regular-season MVP, then Judge will go down as one of the greatest Yankees in recent memory, if not all-time.
Main Photo Credits: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
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