There’s no greater mystery in baseball this year than the New York Mets, now in their third year under billionaire owner Steve Cohen.
It was an epically aggressive offseason in Queens after the Mets got hot late and took the eventual champion Dodgers to Game 6 of the NLCS. Cohen and team president David Stearns went right to work and improved their team across the board. Better yet, some came at a cost to the crosstown rival New York Yankees.
Clay Holmes was an All-Star closer in the Bronx? Let’s give him $38 million over three years and not just convert him to a starter, but the Opening Day starter. In fact, since we’re already in the AL East anyway, let’s make a trade with the Rays and shore up our center field defense with Jose Siri. Then, it’s back on the FDR Drive, across the Triboro Bridge, and onto the Grand Central Parkway all the way back to Flushing.
But not before one more quick stop at Yankee Stadium. Just because.
Greatest Addition: Juan Soto. There’s outbidding the Yankees in free agency, and then there’s outbidding the Yankees in free agency before punching them square in the mouth. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman learned this the hard way when, on the eve of the Winter Meetings, Soto signed a record 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. The Yankees, by comparison, offered 16 years and $760 million.
But that’s not all. As Yankees play-by-play man Michael Kay expertly broke down on his ESPN Radio show, the total value of the deal is closer to $900 million. Soto turned in a career year with the Yankees, hitting .288 with a personal best 41 home runs while leading the American League with 128 runs scored.
Long term, there’s a very good chance this could come back and bite the Mets. Soto is a poor fielder permanently bound for the DH spot in the next few years. A designated hitter making upwards of $50 million a year, for context, basically needs to be better than both David Ortiz and Edgar Martinez combined.
Still, it’s Juan Soto. Part Pedro Cerrano, part Zava. The raw hitting talent is great enough that you take the gamble on his glove not being unplayable. On him slugging 40 or more home runs every year. On him being the missing ingredient to the Mets winning a World Series and overthrowing the Yankees as the Kings of New York.
He’s Juan Soto. Plain and simple.
Greatest Loss: Luis Severino. The Mets fielded an overall middling pitching staff in 2024, finishing 15th with a 3.96 staff ERA. Former Yankees ace Luis Severino played a key role in elevating the staff and went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Sevy was also durable and made 31 starts over 182 innings, his highest workload since 2018.
Cue free agency, and Severino got low-tier ace money from a team that needs one badly. The Athletics signed him for two years, $45 million with an option for a third year. Of course, he’s their Opening Day starter.
This may not seem like a big loss, but Severino added a power sinker last season. He looked a brand new pitcher and had a groundball rate (GB%) of 46%, his highest since 2017. That could have been a key weapon in the division race against hard-hitting Philadelphia and Atlanta.
Greatest Strength: Steve Cohen. There’s putting your money where your mouth is, and then there’s Steve Cohen. The man bought the Mets with his billionaire dollars and has spent them even faster. Between Soto and Francisco Lindor’s megadeals, re-signing Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea, and Edwin Diaz’s record closer contract, he’s a fan’s dream. He’s doing whatever he feels is necessary to win.
Now, will Cohen get the ultimate return on investment in the form of several World Series rings? It’s too soon to tell, and we’ve also yet to see how this big spending will affect the rest of the organization. But in the meantime, don’t expect Cohen to slow down.
Greatest Weakness: Pitching depth. We mentioned Holmes earning the Opening Day nod for the Mets, and he definitely earned it after posting an 0.93 ERA across five spring starts. The problem is behind Holmes, the Mets’ pitching staff is incredibly wanting. Manaea is out with an injury, so the rest of the rotation is: Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, and Kodai Senga.
These four tossed a combined 376 innings last season, with Canning’s 171.2 with the Angels leading the way. The catch is he also led the AL with 99 earned runs allowed, his 5.19 ERA paired with a worse 5.26 FIP. Not exactly a reliable group of arms.
Holmes also hasn’t been a full-time starter since playing in the Pirates’ farm system in 2018. Plus, which minor league pitchers are knocking on the door? Top prospect Brandon Sproat looked decent last year and could debut in 2025, but really struggled at Triple-A. Christian Scott flashed potential when he debuted last season, but is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
We can officially say that as of now, the Mets’ pitching staff is only as good as their run support. We’ll soon see what the bats provide.
Are the mighty New York Mets the team to beat? Slow your roll. The Mets have a new and improved team, but let’s not crown them just yet. The hard-hitting Phillies and Braves are still better across the board and, more importantly have better pitching. This isn’t to say the Mets aren’t a playoff team, they just have a tougher path through their division.
That does, however, result in some adding betting value if you’ll bullish ahead of the season opener. In that case, you might want to use a DraftKings NY promo or FanDuel NY promo on a win total or division future.
But even then, the Mets have some question marks. Neither Pete Alonso nor Francisco Lindor offers Soto enough lineup protection compared to Aaron Judge. Mark Vientos hit 27 home runs in 111 games last year and is expected to match or exceed that in 2025. Brandon Nimmo hit .224 and had a wrC+ under 120 for the first time in five years.
Granted, none of this is to say the Mets will crash and help the Marlins redecorate the NL East basement. They overachieved to the NLCS as a Wild Card last year and can probably do it again in 2025.
But until this team gets some better pitching, any and all World Series talk seems pointless.
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