The Minnesota Twins are Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get from them any given season.
One year, they’ll be sub-.500 and out of the playoffs by mid-June. Another, they might hold onto first place for dear life before their eventual Division Series exit, usually at the hands of the Yankees. In some rare cases, they’ll rally late and steal the AL Central crown in the last week or so of the season.
Last year, on the other hand, was an in-between. Minnesota won 82 games, but finished fourth in the Central. The balance of power in the division is also shifting, and the Pohlad family is selling the team after 40 years of ownership. Word is the new owners, who remain a mystery, could be in place before Opening Day.
New owners usually means new philosophies and ideas. And new ideas often means a full hard rebuild, and the Twins may be ready for one.
Greatest Addition: Harrison Bader. Target Field plays very big, making outfield defense essential. Thus, the Twins went and got one of the best outfield gloves in the game. Bader spent last season with the Mets and owns a career defensive runs saved (DRS) of +40. His outs above average (OAA) are at +70.
Primarily a center fielder, Bader is expected to see a lot of time in left for the Twins. It’ll be an interesting change, especially with him coming off of his worst defensive season. But even then, Bader still managed a +10 OAA in 2024.
The downside is that with Target’s size, Bader’s bat could be anywhere from slightly below average to non-existent. His career wRC+ is 90 and injuries are always a concern. But at one year, $6.25 million, Bader is a fine addition so long as he keeps that wRC+ above 90 and as close to 100 as possible.
Greatest Loss: Carlos Santana. Of all the players to become ageless wonders, who would have expected Santana? The veteran switch-hitter was 38 in 2024 and hit .238 with 23 home runs and 71 RBI in 150 games with the Twins. Santana’s 114 wRC+ was his highest since 2019 and also won his first Gold Glove at first base with a fielding run value (FRV) of +11.
Of course, that was more than enough for Santana to test the free agency waters. Sure enough, he signed on for a third tour of duty with the Cleveland Guardians at one-year, $12 million. Minnesota will turn to Ty France and Jose Miranda at first in the meantime.
Neither France nor Miranda are a downgrade, and Santana will be 39 in April. Even so, was it really too much for Minnesota to try and match Cleveland’s offer?
Greatest Strength: New owners incoming. We may not know the Twins’ potential mystery buyers yet, but this can only mean good things for the team. The Pohlads were pretty good at building successful teams from within and spending selectively, but that’s often not enough in today’s game. The best teams, like the defending World Series champion Dodgers, know how to both spend big money when needed and also have a strong minor league system.
Minnesota, meanwhile, made headlines just for signing Carlos Correa after he failed two physicals with the Mets and Giants.
There’s no guarantee that Minnesota’s new owners, whoever they are, will immediately spend aggressively in free agency, a la Steve Cohen. Even so, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be as passive as the Pohlads.
Greatest Weakness: Mediocre power. The Twins hit 183 home runs as a team last year, good for 14th in baseball. Santana hit 23 of them and is on a new team. Catcher Ryan Jeffers hit a career-high 21, but it’s a lot to ask of him to build off of that with minimal support behind him.
All three of Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis are capable of hitting 25-30 home runs a year. The problem is they can’t stay healthy enough to ever do it regularly. That leaves Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner as the two big bats, but can they be trusted in the middle of the order?
The Twins can certainly make a push for the division this year, but not unless their lineup hits hard from the start. Baseball is power-driven and Minnesota is severely lacking in it this year, at least on paper.
T-Minus how long until the Twins’ rebuild? Honestly, look for the first signs around the trade deadline if the Twins aren’t fully in the playoff race. That’s when you can look for expiring contracts like Chris Paddack and Willi Castro’s to be moved. We also shouldn’t rule out early-arbitration guys like Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran either.
That is, of course, unless the important bats like Buxton and Lewis both produce and stay healthy. Correa too. Minnesota needs to hit home runs to compete this year. Full stop.
Maybe they’ll win the Central. Perhaps it’s a Wild Card year. Or it will be just another average AL Central season with the Twins on the outside looking in.
One way or another, expect these Twins to be a little more Danny DeVito and not so much Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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