The Arizona Diamondbacks are no longer just another small market team.
Two years after overachieving all the way to a World Series, the Snakes are reloaded and ready to go. Corbin Carroll’s shoulder is healthy. The pitching rotation is deep and finally has a true leader.
And for all of general manager Mike Hazen’s efforts, he can expect his Diamondbacks to…top out as a Wild Card.
That isn’t a knock on Arizona as a franchise. The Diamondbacks tied with the Padres for the best team batting average in baseball, at .263. They even led the majors with 886 runs scored!
But it was all for naught since the Diamondbacks finished the year with the fourth-worst pitching staff in baseball. Arizona’s arms posted a staff ERA of 4.62, and the defending National League champions didn’t miss the playoffs.
This time, however, Arizona feels more like a talented Wild Card team. One that would probably run the table if not for those pesky Los Angeles Dodgers.
Greatest Addition: Corbin Burnes. Arizona pulled off the coup of the offseason when they inked Burnes, probably the best pitcher available alongside Max Fried, to a six-year, $210 million deal. Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA for the Orioles last year and took home the NL Cy Young with Milwaukee in 2021. He also lives near Phoenix and turned down competitive offers from the Giants and Blue Jays.
Talk about striking while the iron’s hot. Arizona needed to improve their pitching, so they went and got themselves a bona fide ace. Not someone with ace potential. An actual ace with the hardware and resume to prove it.
Burnes will start Opening Day and immediately boosts the Diamondbacks’ playoff chances.
Greatest Loss: Christian Walker. This was inevitable, given Walker’s rising price tag, but still a tough loss in Arizona. Walker finally hit his stride as a hitter and mashed 95 homers in his last three seasons. He easily could have had his third straight 30-homer campaign too had he not missed a month with an injury. That proved too rich for Hazen, and Walker inked a three-year deal with the Astros.
But the real loss with Walker is his glove. He’s won three consecutive Gold Gloves at first base and owns a +43 career defensive runs saved (DRS).
Granted, Arizona filled the void by acquiring Josh Naylor from Cleveland. He had a career year in 2024 with 31 homers and 108 RBI. But with a -4 DRS at first base, he’s no Christian Walker.
Greatest Strength: Outfield depth. Not only do the Diamondbacks have a healthy Corbin Carroll in 2025, but there’s plenty of outfield depth behind him and fellow starts Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel. Alek Thomas can’t hit much, but is otherwise a plus centerfielder. Pavin Smith and Randal Grichuk probably platoon the DH spot with occasional games in the field.
Speaking of Grichuk, he hit .291 with 12 home runs and a 139 wRC+ in just 106 games. Even in a platoon role, he can still clearly turn on a fastball. The Diamondbacks will need plenty of that just to keep pace with the Dodgers in the division race.
Greatest Weakness: Bullpen. Arizona’s bullpen wasn’t much better than the overall pitching staff last year. Diamondbacks relievers ranked 25th with a 4.41 ERA, and the collective FIP wasn’t far behind at 4.19. That should have been enough for Hazen to add a reliable bullpen arm to complement the Burnes signing.
Instead, Arizona did almost nothing to reshape the bullpen. Veteran Kendall Graveman was signed, but missed all of last year with shoulder surgery. Justin Martinez is penciled in as the closer after notching eight total last year, most of which were in August. There are no surefire shutdown arms, so pitching and bullpen coaches Brian Kaplan and Wellington Cepeda had better get creative.
How far can the Diamondbacks actually go in 2025? That’s a good question because as great as the offense was last year, the lineup 100% overachieved. Arizona was a middling offense across the board en route to the World Series in 2023, and even ranked 22nd in home runs. Trading for Eugenio Suarez ahead of last year helped, but he’s not that big a difference maker.
But the lineup still looks strong, and Naylor adds a much-needed lefty presence. Burnes heads a great staff which also features talent like Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, and even Jordan Montgomery. This is enough to keep up with the Dodgers, but not enough to pass them in the standings and hold serve.
Thus, Arizona’s path to October is through the Wild Card. If Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo can address the bullpen, they might even advance past the NLDS.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: The Arizona Diamondbacks evolution | Elite Sports NY