ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: St. Louis Cardinals are stuck in the old days

That the St. Louis Cardinals finished above .500 in 2024 is nothing short of a miracle.

Keep in mind, the team is on the cusp of some major changes. John Mozeliak, the Cards’ general manager since 2007, is retiring at season’s end. Former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom is waiting in the wings. Oliver Marmol remains the manager despite having the baseball acumen of a stale toasted ravioli.

None of this is to say the Cardinals are a god-awful team who lucked into 83 wins last year. They have a lot of talent on paper and a long history of developing great players. Which team do you think has won the most World Series after the Yankees? That would be the St. Louis Cardinals, the old crimson-clad lady of the Midwest.

The NL Central is fairly open this year, but not to the Cardinals. In fact, it’s more likely that 2025 is the start of the long, hard rebuild.

Greatest Addition: None. No, I’m serious. The St. Louis Cardinals did absolutely nothing to add to or improve the team this offseason. Since when does winning 83 games, missing the playoffs, and finishing ten games out of first place in the division make a front office go, “Run it back!”

The fact that Mozeliak & Co. spent more energy trying to offload Nolan Arenado’s contract instead of improving the roster speaks volumes. For the first time in decades, it’s as though St. Louis cares more about the budget than it does about winning. This makes a rebuild seem not just a possibility, but an almost certainty.

Greatest Loss: Paul Goldschmidt. It was unlikely the Cardinals would keep Goldschmidt anyway, but a down year from him made the decision easier. The former MVP played through a bum shoulder all year and hit a career-worst .245 with 22 home runs and 65 RBI. He did, however, to hit .271 after the All-Star Break and finished with a wRC+ of exactly 100. Right at the league average.

St. Louis has since moved Willson Contreras from catcher to first base and while he can hit, he hasn’t stayed healthy in St. Louis. Goldschmidt, meanwhile, took his Hall of Fame resume and strong leadership to the Yankees on a one-year deal, and basically looks his usual self at age 37.

Alas, New York’s $12.5 million offer proved too rich for the Cardinals’ blood.

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Greatest Strength: Player development. Win or lose, the Cardinals are similar to the Dodgers in that their farm system always produces. Only Arenado and Contreras are the non-homegrown Cardinals in the lineup. The rest is a group of talented and versatile high-upside hitters from Alec Burleson at DH to slick-fielding shortstop Masyn Winn to Jordan Walker in the outfield.

It extends to the pitching staff too. Ryan Helsley was a fifth-round pick in 2015 and led the majors with 49 saves in 2024. Andre Pallante was a fourth-rounder in 2019 and should continue to grow as a starter. Maybe top prospect Tink Hence will finally debut this year.

Player development this strong means that if a Cardinals rebuild is on the horizon, it could thankfully be a short one.

Greatest Weakness: Behind the times. A wise man once said “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” and the Cardinals’ farm system seems to imply that. They develop guys in the minors, they debut, they succeed. Lather, rinse, repeat.

However, that isn’t necessarily true as to developing pitching. Look back at the St. Louis Cardinals’ long illustrious history, and they haven’t had a true ace since prime Adam Wainwright. Furthermore, the last time the Cardinals had an actual homegrown ace was Matt Morris. Don’t forget, Wainwright was drafted by the Braves and sent to St. Louis in a trade for outfielder J.D. Drew.

A look at the Cardinals’ pitchers from their 2011 World Series season, and you’ll find only three arms who were drafted by St. Louis: Jaime García, Kyle McClellan, and a rookie Lance Lynn.

This led to two things last offseason. First, the Cardinals spent nearly $100 million on free agent pitchers, including $75 million on Sonny Gray. Second, they modernized how they developed minor league arms.

Why was modernization necessary? Because the Cardinals haven’t finished higher than 21st in team strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in the last five years.

Is this the year the Cardinals crash and burn? It’s tough to say for a couple of reasons. The first is, as we discussed, St. Louis’ farm system always turns out decent hitters. The second is that the NL Central is pretty open this year. The Cardinals have just as much chance of a down year as they do miraculously overachieving to a Wild Card berth, maybe more.

Unfortunately for St. Louis, the 2025 season is looking more like the former. The Brewers operate in a similar way, but have more reliable bats by a wide margin. Pittsburgh’s pitching could be straight-up scary this season. The Cubs and Reds have advantages just from being managed by Craig Counsell and Terry Francona.

That leaves the Cardinals with wet wings, treading water, and likely sinking to the bottom of the NL Central.

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