The re-signing of Cody Bellinger means that the Yankees are running back the same three starters from last year’s outfield.
Last season they finished first in OPS, home runs, and WAR among all outfields in baseball, but how do they shape up to perform for the 2026 season?
Headlined by AL MVP Aaron Judge, who narrowly defeated Cal Raleigh in the voting process, the Yankees have over $90 million invested into that group for the upcoming season.
Will they deliver on that investment? We’re digging into the projections and statistical trends from last season that could help us figure out how much we can expect from this group in 2026.
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The Yankees Are Running Back Their 2025 Outfield; Will it Work?
Trent Grisham was the first of the two outfielders to return as he signed a controversial one-year $22.03 million contract on the Qualifying Offer.
Most people, myself included, that his time in the Bronx had come to an end but the Yankees believed he was worth that one year contract and he ended up taking it.
Grisham hit 34 home runs with an .811 OPS last season and while I don’t believe he’ll repeat that performance there were a lot of positives from his offensive profile that could lead to a productive 2026 campaign.
He more than doubled his Fast Swing% from the previous season and increased his Pull AIR% by 3.5 points as well to generate more damage contact to right field, a perfect swing for Yankee Stadium.
Tack on a high in-zone contact rate to go with the elite batted ball data, and you can see why projections buy into Grisham to remain an above-average hitter in 2026.
There’s a lot of buy-in for his 2026 season because of the excellent expected stats from last year and the fact that he’s generally ran good Barrel% and Average EV numbers throughout his career.
People forget that just three years before his 2025 season, Grisham was consdiered one of the best young outfielders in the game due to his raw power, patience, and solid contact abilities.
These systems are baking in that he always had these tools and for about 1.5 years flashed them in San Diego, but only time can truly tell if the optimism around him offensively in the data world translates into results.
Cody Bellinger always felt like a likely returning member of the 2025 cast, but the question now is whether he’s worth that high price tag that the Yankees gave him.
Steamer, ATC, and The BAT X would give you very different answers on that question, but I generally believe that his pull rates and contact abilities will perform well at Yankee Stadium.
I don’t think we’re getting a 125 wRC+ in 2026, but something in that 115-120 range is what the team should hope for with excellent defense in the corner outfield.
That kind of player would be worth about 4 WAR which is worth a $31 million price tag and it’s not an unreasonable expectation for the player.
Bellinger is back because the Yankees probably didn’t want to pay Kyle Tucker and knew that he was their best option in the market if they weren’t going after the big fish.
He’s a versatility swiss-army knife who can double as their backup centerfielder and first baseman, allowing the team to have different alignments depending on the health and performance of other guys on the team.
As for Aaron Judge, you don’t need a segment breaking him down; he has the highest single-season wRC+ ever for a hitter with at least 500 PAs (220) and the third-highest ever as well (206).
The depth behind them includes Jasson Dominguez, Jose Caballero, and Spencer Jones, which are fine options to have although I’d like to swap out one of the two young outfielders for a right-handed one.
FanGraphs projects them to finish first in outfield WAR (12.8) and that’s not just because of Aaron Judge; both Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger are expected to be an excellent duo alongside him.
I wouldn’t say their median outcome is being the best outfield in baseball, but I do expect this group to be very good, and it’s why the Yankees ended up running it back in 2026.