With Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander off the market — to the Rangers and to the Mets, respectively — Carlos Rodon is the clear top starting pitcher left on the free-agent market. As one would expect for a 29-year-old lefty (30 next week) who opted out of the second season of his contract on the heels leading the National League in strikeouts, the asking price appears quite high. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that agent Scott Boras and Rodon have been seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30MM or more. (Notably, that report pre-dates Verlander’s new agreement with the Mets.) Heyman suggests that the Yankees are the large-market team that is most focused on Rodon at present.
As always, it’s worth taking early asking prices with a grain of salt to some degree. That’s not to say Rodon can’t reach six years and/or a $30MM+ annual value, but it behooves any free agent to at least initially set a lofty asking price. A six-year deal for Rodon would put the lefty in rarefied air, as the list of free-agent pitchers to secure such a commitment is quite short.
No free-agent pitcher has pulled in six-plus years on the open market since the 2019 Winter Meetings, when Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) managed to do so. Prior to that pairing, the only free-agent deals of six or more years in length over the past decade have gone to Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke (twice!) and Patrick Corbin. Starting pitchers earning more than $30MM annually are similarly rare; Cole, Strasburg, Scherzer, Price, Greinke, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and deGrom are the only pitchers to ever reach that level.
For Rodon to join either group of arms, he’ll need to convince the market that the injury troubles that dogged him for much of his early career are in the past. Rodon has undergone shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in his career, and due to those injuries pitched just 232 1/3 innings at the Major League level over a four-year period (2017-20).
However, the former No. 3 overall pick returned to the White Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal in 2021 after being non-tendered, and broke out with one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the sport. Through mid-July in 2021, Rodon was the clear front-runner for American League Cy Young honors and quite arguably the most dominant pitcher in either league. Shoulder fatigue down the stretch dropped his velocity and relegated him to just six starts over the final two months, and durability concerns “limited” him to a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants — one that allowed him to opt out of the contract after one season if he pitched at least 110 innings.
Rodon not only reached 110 innings — he dominated to the tune of a 2.88 ERA through a career-high 178 frames. He held his velocity late in the season, averaged better than 5 2/3 frames per start and took significant strides toward alleviating some durability concerns. He paced the National League in strikeouts this past season and has now turned in consecutive campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, he leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, which may slightly impact his earning power, but that consideration shouldn’t be a major encumbrance for an in-his-prime, ace-caliber pitcher.
That’s especially true now, because with deGrom and Verlander off the market and little to no frontline starting pitchers clearly available in the trade market, demand for Rodon should be extra-steep. He can justifiably hold out for max years and/or dollars and go to the highest bidder, knowing that teams in need of an ace have no readily available alternative. Unlike Verlander, who surely prioritized signing with a win-now team due to his age, Rodon can consider a broader field of suitors. To this point in the offseason Rodon has drawn interest from as many as nine teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, Twins and Orioles among the team’s reported to be involved in his market to at least some extent.