Cam Schlittler has been incredible this season and completely dominated in his first playoff start, sending the Yankees to the ALDS with an eight-inning gem against the Red Sox.
The Blue Jays have been a thorn in his side this season though; Schlittler has been unable to solve their offense, the same way that neither Max Fried or Carlos Rodon have been able to sort their group out.
Toronto has made a ton of contact against him this year, as he’s picked up just five strikeouts in 37 batters faced (13.5%), and he’ll have to change that trend tonight in order for the Yankees to have a chance.
With a rookie on the bump for just the second time in his playoff career, the Blue Jays’ red-hot offense will feel good about putting up runs tonight, but how can Cam Schlittler keep them off-balance?
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Why Cam Schlittler Could Send the Yankees to a Game 5 in Toronto
One of the biggest advantages going for Cam Schlittler in this start is how the Blue Jays perform against high-velocity fastballs, as they rank inside the bottom 10 in xwOBA and Whiff% against four-seamers at-or-above 98 MPH.
Cam Schlittler sat at 98 MPH this season on his four-seamer and 99 MPH in his playoff debut, if the right-hander can attack the zone with that pitch he could be dominant tonight.
Toronto has destroyed hard sinkers this season, which is a pitch that Schlittler needs to use selectively in order to avoid playing into their strengths.
When he last faced the Blue Jays, he told the media he was tipping pitches, and since that point in time he’s posted a 2.37 ERA to end his regular season.
That doesn’t mean that Schlittler can just rely on the four-seamer to get outs, he’ll need to mix-in his secondary pitches as well to keep Toronto guessing all evening, with the cutter being a key pitch in this equation.
Toronto has struggled against this pitch type all season despite how low they whiff against it, and it could give Schlittler some quick outs in a game where providing length could give New York a huge advantage.
John Schneider has named Louis Varland as their starter for today, signifying a bullpen game just a day after they had to use six different relievers in Game 3.
If Cam Schlittler can spin his cutter off the four-seamer, overpowering hitters at the top of the zone and tunnelling firm cutters to get soft contact, he can run a low pitch count and pitch into the sixth inning.
The Yankees need to keep this game to Fernando Cruz, Devin Williams, and David Bednar in the late-innings, with Camilo Doval and Tim Hill as their middle relief arms if needed.
Starting pitching has been a massive issue for the Yankees this series, starters on the team have an ERA north of 18 in the first three games of this series for the Bronx Bombers.
The reason Cam Schlittler ever joined the big-league roster was because Clarke Schmidt had a torn UCL, an injury discovered after a start in Toronto.
His first road start came against the Blue Jays where he held them to two runs over five innings, and his first start allowing more than three earned runs in an MLB game also came against the Blue Jays.
Now he has a chance to flip the script in a series that has felt emblematic of what we saw in the regular season, the Blue Jays have owned the Yankees and there hasn’t been much to change it.
The Blue Jays want to do what the Red Sox, Astros, and Dodgers have been able to enjoy in recent years; a champagne celebration in front of heartbroken New Yorkers.
If Cam Schlittler delivers tonight, this series goes back to a winner-take-all Game 5, and if he loses, the organization will have to pick up the pieces of another series loss to an American League rival; will he rise to the occassion?