In just a few hours, the New York Yankees will hand Clarke Schmidt the ball for Game 3 of the American League Division Series. Given how the Kansas City Royals tied the series with one bad inning for Carlos Rodon in Game 2 on Monday, fans are a little nervous.
It’s easy to understand why. Clarke Schmidt only has three postseason appearances under his belt, all out of the bullpen as a rookie in 2022. Schmidt only pitched 2.1 innings in a Swiss Army Knife role, and his 11.57 ERA reflected such. Most notably, he gave up a three-run lead and blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS against Cleveland.
How did that happen? Well, Schmidt had been developed as a starter his entire career, and did everything from high leverage to mop-up work to even closing duties as a rookie. It’s not easy to be in the bullpen in a playoff game without a clear and defined role.
Things are different now. Schmidt is locked in as a Yankees starter and looked a brand new pitcher before a shoulder injury knocked him out for over three months. He finished 0-2 in five September starts, but with a 3.65 ERA and near-equal 3.69 FIP.
But on the season? Schmidt looked ace-like at times and finished with a 2.85 ERA while allowing two fewer hits per inning. The streaky starter thrust into the No. 2 role thanks to injuries is gone.
Some of it is luck. Schmidt issued a hair more walks and his groundball rate (GB%) dipped over three points to 40.5%. However, the tradeoff was a near-six-point increase in his soft contact. He also allowed 4% fewer pulls to opposing hitters, forcing them more up the middle or to their opposite side.
There is no secret formula, only an adjustment in pitch selection. Last season, Schmidt used his cutter, sweeper, and sinker fairly evenly, all around 24-27% each, while sneaking in his knuckle curve and the occasional changeup. This time around, his cutter leads the way with 35%, followed by the sweeper (25.2%) and sinker (21%) tag-teaming, and the knuckle curve (18.2%) is the sneak attack.
In turn, Schmidt’s whiff rate rose to the 79th percentile in 2024 compared to the 25th percentile a year ago.
Now, Clarke Schmidt toes the slab in the most important start of his career. Furthermore, the Yankees’ season may depend on it. The Royals had the best team strikeout rate (K%) in the American League in the regular season, 19.4. Schmidt has his work cut out for him, and probably has a short leash. No more than two turns through the lineup before the flamethrowing Luis Gil takes the ball.
The difference is that two years ago, Clarke Schmidt took the mound in an important postseason game and threw whatever.
Tonight, let’s see him pitch.
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