The “impending disaster” tag that follows the New York Mets like a bad smell might not be fair at this point. We’ve all lived through it. Last year was a gut punch, ending the season just a single game short of the dance in a way that only this franchise can manage. But as pitchers and catchers get ready to descend on Port St. Lucie, the math is telling a story that actually smells like optimism.
The Math Says This Team Is Legit
Dan Szymborski and his ZiPS projection system just dropped the 2026 forecast, and for once, the computer isn’t trolling Queens. The system pegs the Mets at 89-73. That’s a six-game jump over last season’s frustrating 83-79 finish. More importantly, it slots them as the second-best team in the NL East and the third-best in the entire National League. People will whine about the Philadelphia Phillies still being the favorites, but as Szymborski explains, they aren’t getting any younger, so there is a bit of room for the Mets to take over the division.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola aren’t getting younger. If Wheeler’s health wavers even a little, that two-game gap ZiPS sees at the top of the division evaporates instantly.
Life Without the Polar Bear
Losing Pete Alonso feels like losing the soul of the lineup. He signed that massive five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore, and it stings to see the franchise home run leader in orange and black. Add in the departures of Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and the heartbreak of Edwin Diaz bolting for the Dodgers, and it looks like a firesale. It isn’t.
David Stearns, however, didn’t just sit on his hands while the clubhouse emptied out. He went out and built a roster that is significantly more balanced than the top-heavy squads of the past few seasons.
A High-Octane Roster Overhaul
This lineup is now terrifyingly right-handed in all the right ways. Bo Bichette is a massive get on a three-year deal, and his .381 average with runners in scoring position last year is exactly what this team lacked in big moments. He’s shifting to third base, which should hide some of his range issues while keeping his elite bat near the top of the lineup.
Then you have Luis Robert Jr. patrolling center field. If Robert can actually stay on the dirt for 140 games, he’s a 30-30 threat that changes the entire complexion of the outfield. Pair them with Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco, and you suddenly have a veteran floor that hasn’t existed here in years.
The Arms Race in Queens
The rotation isn’t just Kodai Senga and some prayers anymore. Trading for Freddy Peralta was a masterstroke, giving the Mets a legit frontline starter who missed bats at an elite clip for the Brewers. Behind him, you have the youth movement finally surfacing. Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong are the real deal.
McLean’s stuff is electric, and ZiPS actually loves his trajectory as a top-flight starter. Even with the bullpen losing Diaz, the back end looks stable with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. We’re looking at a team that finally has the depth to survive the inevitable June swoon.
The Final Verdict for 2026
While the Braves should be better, the Phillies are brittle. This is the year the Mets stop being a punchline and start being a problem. The projections say 89 wins, but I’m looking at this roster and seeing a 90-plus win ceiling if the kids in the rotation hit their stride. October isn’t just a dream this time. It’s the expectation.