David Stearns has never been one to pay for past performance, but in trading for Marcus Semien, he is heavily betting that the version we saw in 2025 was an anomaly, and not a potential future. Semien has always been about durability and consistency, but last season, his body finally betrayed him. Semien is now entering his age-35 season and wearing a Mets uniform, Semien represents the most interesting piece in Carlos Mendoza’s infield. If the Mets are able to get the Gold Glove defender with 25-homer power, this lineup can be lethal. But if they get stuck with the hobbled veteran we saw last season, who posted a sub-.700 OPS, this trade could be a massive bust.
The 2025 Drop-off: Regression or Ruin?
Last season, Semien slashed a mere .230/.305/.364 with just 15 home runs and a .669 OPS over 127 games. But Semien has always been the model of availability, but last year he sustained a fractured foot and Lisfranc strain finally forced Texas to sideline him in September. The most alarming part wasn’t just the injury though, it was the lack of impact he had when he was able to be on the field. His ISO (Isolated Power) fell to .134, suggesting that his bat speed might be slowing down.
However, even during his worst offensive campaign, Semien was able to still be elite with his glove. He was able to secure his second Gold Glove Award, leading all American League second basemen with 5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 7 Outs Above Average (OAA). This provides a “high floor” that David Stearns is hoping to bank on. Even if his bat is unable to fully return to his 2023 MVP finalist form, Semien is able to guarantee that the Mets will have lockdown defense at second base, which was something they were never able to consistently have since the prime years of Jeff McNeil.
2026 Projections: The Bounce-Back Candidate
Semien’s 2026 projections suggest a potential return to his average, if not better. ZiPS is projecting Semien to rebound back to a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) with a slash line roughly around .244/.315/.390 with 17 home runs. While they aren’t the MVP numbers, like he was able to put up in Toronto or early in his Texas years, they still provide a significant upgrade over the production the Mets got from the position last year. A 3.0 WAR season for Semien is entirely within reach if he is able to stays healthy, which would make him a massive addition for a team that doesn’t need him to be a primary superstar.
Semien’s role in New York is much different than what was asked of him in Texas. With Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Bo Bichette likely anchoring the top of the order, Semien is no longer being asked to carry the offense. He can comfortably slot into the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup, allowing him to focus on situational hitting rather than trying to be a primary option. The Mets are hoping that by reducing the burden on him offensively, and removing the pressure of being a primary option, Semien should be able to focus on what he does best; playing elite defense and punishing mistakes in the zone.
This trade is a buy-low move by Stearns for a player with a championship pedigree. The Mets are betting that a healthy offseason allows for his foot to properly heal, and that Semien’s 2025 struggles were likely injury-driven rather than age-driven. This move wasn’t for the 45-homer version of Semien, but instead for leadership and Gold Glove defense, with a potential upside bat. If Marcus Semien can simply provide league-average offense as well as Gold Glove defense, he can stabilize the middle of the field and this lineup. But if his injury lingers, or if Father Time has truly arrived, that $24 million AAV is going to be a massive talking point by Mets fans come July.