What do the Amazin’ Avenue writers think of the players on the 2025 Top 25 Top Prospect list.
Ronny Mauricio (10)
Steve says,
Here we are, a year later, and nothing has changed about Ronny Mauricio except for the fact that he’s a year older. I don’t think that there will be any lingering issues from his ACL tear, but people still need to pump the brakes because there were a ton of red flags prior to the injury and the year-long layoff means that he hasn’t had time to show us they are behind him or not. The tools are all still there, so maybe Mauricio will put everything together in 2025.
Lukas says,
I almost want to push Mauricio higher, something that will shock any long-time readers. But the Mets’ success w/ Mark Vientos – another prospect I never really believed in – has me feeling more optimistic here. Yes, Mauricio’s issues are different and worse than Vientos’ were, and who knows if this works without J.D. Martinez in the clubhouse (though Carlos Mendoza, a former hitting instructor w/ the Yankees, likely deserves a lot of credit too). But if they can work some magic, Mauricio’s underlying contact and power talent could really shine. All that positive aside, none of this is actually about Mauricio, who had a setback in his ACL recovery and missed the entirety of 2024. Overcorrecting off of one successful development story is also probably a mistake. So I’ll temper expectations a bit and leave Mauricio at the back-end of the top-10 for now.
Jesus Baez (9)
Steve says,
Jesus Baez started getting some helium a few years ago, but poor on-the-field performance knocked him off the prospect lists he was already on the cusps of to begin within. With a solid 2024 performance, he established himself on most lists once again. He has shown issues making contact with fastballs, but was electric against non-fastballs, punishing them for both a high average and a ton of power. At 19, Baez is still growing and maturing and may continue adding power to a profile that already has well above-average raw and borderline above-average in-game. His days at shortstop are probably already numbered, as he received more time at third base in 2024 than he did at short, but his arm and athleticism should both be enough for the hot corner for the time being.
Lukas says,
Baez was one of the few bright spots offensively in the Mets system this season, and of course he got hurt at the tail end as well. Before that, he was showing underlying metrics (e.g., contact, damage, approach) similar to Aidan Miller in the FSL, and Miller is going to be a top 50 prospect this offseason. The difference of course is that Miller might actually be a shortstop and should be a good third baseman if he can’t stick at the 6. Baez is definitely not a shortstop and might not be a second or third baseman either, a defensive picture complicated further by his late season knee surgery. Tumbling down the defensive spectrum will put more pressure on the bat, which despite those very positive underlying metrics has never really dominated a level either. Again, a lot to like here and it’s a real success story, but there are some problematic warts that will need to be monitored.
Luisangel Acuna (8)
Steve says,
Will the real Luisangel please stand up? In 131 games in Syracuse- a favorable environment for hitters- he hit a paltry .258/.299/.355 with unfavorable batted ball data. He got called up to the Mets, made some mechanical adjustments that involved quieting his leg kick, made some approach adjustments that involved being more aggressive, and in 22 games went 12-39 with much more favorable batted ball data. Furthermore, he continued those gains in the Venezuelan Winter League, hitting .337/.419/.495 with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, and 18 stolen bases. Is it a case of small sample size giving us misleading numbers, in the case of his MLB debut? Is it a case of performing well in a league that is very skewed in favor of hitters, in the case of his VEWL success? Acuna has more raw power than his size or in-game numbers would suggest, and unlocking more of it would make a major difference in his viability as a major leaguer.
Lukas says,
Acuna’s debut was electric, but not really indicative of anything when weighed against his larger Triple-A sample. In Syracuse, he did very limited damage on contact, rarely pulled the ball in the air, and chased at a problematic level en route to a sub-70 wRC+. There are decent contact skills here, the speed is real, and he’s a viable defender at both middle infield spots (and presumably third) as well. Acuna also has problematic approach issues and, unlike other Mets prospects, does not have the impact to buoy the offensive profile. That makes him a high floor utility infielder, a nice player to have around and one who can contribute immediately, but not someone to count on as a long-term starter.
Ryan Clifford (7)
Steve says,
Ryan Clifford had a weird season. His first quarter was buoyed by a high on-base percentage and then his next three were buoyed by his plus power. Clifford has legitimate game-changing power, but his swing-and-miss problems mean that he’s going to be able to tap into it consistently. When he’s on, he’s on, but when he’s not, he’s not: he hit .306/.500/.917 with 4 doubles and 6 home runs in 12 games in the first half of June and then hit .091/.279/.273 with 2 home runs in 11 games in the second half of the month. He hit well in High-A Asheville in 2023 prior to being traded to the Mets, so the possibility is there that he re-figures out what worked there, but given that those gains just magically disappeared, I don’t know if I’d count on them reappearing.
Lukas says,
This is one of the more difficult rankings to parse for me. On the one hand, Clifford posted a very good 133 wRC+ in Double-A as a 20-year-old, and that came after posting a 124 wRC+ in a brutal hitting environment in High-A. On the other, a lot of that value is a product of a passive approach at the plate, and there are major holes in his swing. Sure, this all feels Lucas Duda-y (who was Good), but Duda never struck out this much in the minors. Then again, it was a different era and Duda was 3-4 years older. You can see the back and forth. Ultimately, I’m going to make a bet on Clifford’s approach and power winning out here and him emerging as a viable long-term 1B option by the end of this season, albeit one with a very strong TTO flavor to him.
Drew Gilbert (6)
Steve says,
Drew Gilbert did not have a particularly good 2024. He was hurt for a good chunk of the season, and then when he was on the field, well, it wasn’t necessarily disastrous, but it wasn’t particularly great, either; it certainly wasn’t the kind of season we were all hoping for. The biggest concern for me was Gilbert’s sudden inability to do real damage, and just hit breaking balls, period. Is it because he was still dealing from lingering health issues, or just needed some extra time getting all the rust off? Or was it because Triple-A pitching is beyond his ability to deal with as a hitter? I think he still has enough prospect cache left and there are enough asterisks attached to his 2024 performance for him to not go tumbling down prospect lists and to let us partially wave away the season saying, “let’s see how it goes in 2025,” but many have seemingly already given up on him. I’m willing to give Gilbert the benefit of the doubt for now and cross my fingers on a bounce-back season.
Lukas says,
This was a disaster-level season for Gilbert, no other way to put it. He was supposed to take Starling Marte’s job by May. Instead, he missed three months with a hamstring injury, then was awful in Triple-A when he got back. Now he’s blocked by Juan Soto. When Gilbert was on the field, he continued to pull the ball in the air (good), but his exit velocities cratered and he started swinging-and-missing at soft stuff down in the zone far too often. I am not all the way out because I am generally willing to give guys a pass for seasons where they miss a whole bunch of time. Gilbert is also someone who has a history of playing through injuries when he shouldn’t so it’s perfectly possible that hamstring was still nagging him when he was on the field. This is a pattern at this point though, with injuries that linger – whether due to factors Gilbert can or cannot control – effecting his on-field performance. He’ll need a bounce back 2025 to avoid tumbling out of the “potential future OF starter” bucket.
Nolan McLean (5)
Steve says,
Nolan McLean isn’t a bad player by any means, but everything about him screams out “two-pitch reliever” to me, and does two-pitch reliever really equate to top prospect in the system? It’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but would you have ever considered Dedniel Nunez, who has a similar above-average fastball in terms of velocity and spin and an above-average slider in terms of spin metrics, an upper tier prospect? McLean turning into a stalwart reliever wouldn’t be a bad thing, of course, because how many more games might the Mets have won over the years, how many more playoff berths might they have clinched over the years if the team had developed and rostered a few more solid relievers, but the amount of helium he’s getting from other industry sources based on the underlying analytical metrics of his fastball and sweeping slider and the potential for better results as compared to 2024 is a lot more than I would give him at this point.
Lukas says,
McLean is a spin monster. That’s it, that’s the pitch (*rimshot*). But seriously, McLean really knows how to spin the ball. The sweeper just keeps running towards the left-handed batters box, to the point where I wonder if it’s too easy for guys to lay off it at times. The incorporation of a cutter has helped some there, and he’s added a sinker and changeup as he seemingly attempts to reduce the use of his not-great four-seam. I can’t shake the feeling that this all feels a bit reliever-ish (nor can I peg why I feel this more strongly about McLean than I do Tong), but that’s not even much of a problem in today’s game. There’s also more runway for growth here given that McLean only just gave up being a two-way player. Look for him to debut in some capacity – either as a short-outing starter or as a late-inning reliever – sometime in 2025.
Jonah Tong (4)
Steve says,
Overslot prep pitchers always pique my interest, and Jonah Tong was no different back in 2022. I had him fairly high on my 2023 Mets Top Prospect list, but the Mets held him out of organized games until late June and then babied him for the rest of the season, so he kind of slipped through the cracks. Fully healthy and given plenty of leash, Tong had one hell of a year. Fun pitchers don’t necessarily have to be good pitchers (Jose Lima) and good pitchers don’t necessarily have to be fun pitchers (Mark Buehrle), but occasionally, the two will intersect; R.A. Dickey was a good pitcher who also happened to be fun. In 2024, Jonah Tong was both and hopefully that will continue for years to come. Between his fun over-the-top mechanics and his big curveball, here’s hoping that the Mets are able to finally develop a Lincecum-lite (shout out to Matt Bowman).
Lukas says,
Let’s recap Tong’s rise this year quickly. He started in St. Lucie and struck out more than 50% of hitters. Then he went to Brooklyn and struck out 30%. Then he went to Binghamton at the end of the year and struck out 14 in 9.1 innings. None of this was as an overaged player (and he’s got less baseball experience than many his age due to his odd demographic). This was also not the result of wild stuff that minor league hitters lack the discipline to layoff, as Tong’s walk rates were reasonable. No, there’s real strikeout stuff here, led by a devastating fastball with more IVB (19.5 inches) than any pitch in the majors last year. That, combined with his funky delivery and low attack angle, lets him succeed without premium velocity. There’s still work to do here – Tong needs to refine his promising but unpolished secondaries and go deeper into games – and without high-end velocity it’s difficult to put a #2 starter projection on him. But Tong’s a really nice prospect now, and I feel good pegging him as a #3 starter.
Carson Benge (3)
Steve says,
When the Mets drafted Benge, I wasn’t really feeling it; admittedly, none of the players who were available with the 19th overall pick really did it for me, but Benge really didn’t do it for me. Sure, there were plenty of things to like about him, but the swing just did not look like one that would work in professional baseball. With Kevin Parada and Alex Ramirez fresh in our minds right there as testimony to the fact that maybe the Mets are not the best organization to fix a funky swing, maybe taking a player with one was not the best idea. Well, maybe third time’s the charm, because Benge made a few simple changes to his swing sometime between his college season and when he made his professional debut, and in a very limited sample size, all of the questions I had seemingly have been answered.
Lukas says,
In a total appeal to authority move, I am going to refer you to Jarrett Seidler’s, Ben Zeidman’s, and Jacob Edelman’s commentary over at Baseball Prospectus on Benge both pre- and post-draft. Pre-draft, he was an interesting hitter with an intriguing blend of power and contact as well as the potential to stick in center. He also had inconsistent swing mechanics that vacillated between fine and horrible and a lot of hard contact to center field (not ideal). Post draft, the BP team (and others) realized that Benge’s seemingly inconsistent swing was in fact the product of a distinct change partway through the college season, with all his best tape coming after. That makes him, on true talent, probably someone who should’ve gone in the top 10 of the draft and a clear top 100 guy. The Mets got a steal here.
Jett Williams (2)
Steve says,
We live in an era where baseball teams are in a McKinsian quest for a competitive edge, leading to a lot of teams churning out the same kind of player over and over and over- how many players on this list alone have we stated “have a good fastball up in the zone and a sweeper?”- until the next big break is made and everyone else scrambles to catch up to what becomes the new status quo. Jett Williams might be modeled in the current iteration of what an optimized hitter is- he has strong bat-on-ball skills, a swing with lift, and a strong eye that will draw walks while limiting strikeouts- but he’s also a breath of fresh air: he plays hard, he plays with swagger, and he’s 5’6”. He reminds me a lot of two of my favorite Mets players of yesteryear: Lenny Dykstra and Brian Cole. While the latter’s career tragically ended before it really ever began, Lenny Dykstra had a respectable career that I’d be thrilled if Jett Williams mirrored (minus the copious amounts of cocaine).
Lukas says,
I’ve been high on Jett basically from the jump, so 2024 presents something of a conundrum. He entered the season with a clear upward trajectory but also with questions about his ability to handle upper minor’s pitching. In particular, we wanted to see changes to Jett’s approach (be a bit more aggressive) and hopefully some additional gains to his raw power. Then he suffered a wrist injury – a huge setback to both objectives – and missed most of the season. A late season AFL cameo did not assuage these concerns either. Generally, I am not willing to write guys off based on injured seasons, so Jett stays at #1 for me. That said, those questions are a bit more important to answer in 2025 as Jett knocks on the door of a major league opportunity.
Brandon Sproat (1)
Steve says,
I was ecstatic when the Mets selected Sproat for the second time in 2023, because it made my life so much easier: I wrote a draft profile of him in 2022 and I would only have to make minimal changes to it for 2023. Sproat, of course, is a pretty good pitcher, but that’s besides the point! Less work! Being serious, the numbers at Florida were only so-so, but he had big time velocity, a really good slider, and a really good changeup; a lot to like. Tweaks needed to be made, but the Mets clearly made them, and here we are. The system really has been bereft of a big-time flamethrowing TOR profile for a few years now- Noah Syndergaard might’ve been the last?- and it’s exciting that Sproat seems to be coming into his own and fulfilling that role at a time when the team and organization as a whole are on the rise.
Lukas says,
I laugh/cried when the Mets selected Sproat for the second time in 2023 because it was simply absurd. Credit to the team though, they made the right call here, and Sproat is now one of the best (though not among the elite) pitching prospects in the minors. The shape of his fastball is still not great, but he throws it hard and his deep secondary arsenal papers over a lot of sins. Rob Orr’s stuff model loves his changeup (89th percentile) and the eye test agrees. Ditto his sweeper (76th percentile) to a slightly lesser degree, and he has a distinct harder slider as well that he uses effectively. Sproat should reach the majors in 2025 and slot in as a decent #3 starter almost immediately, with upside for more if the Mets continue to refine his pitch mix.