The inner harbor awaits the Amazin’s.
The New York Mets (52-39) travel to Camden Yards for a three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles (40-49). For the penultimate series before the All-Star Break, the Mets are hoping to continue their hot streak against one of the lesser teams of the American League.
The Mets are still pulling up their nose after an incredibly rough stretch of the season when they went 3-13 to end June, losing series to the Rays, Braves, Phillies, and Pirates. Thankfully, the offense has woken up in July, having scored 34 runs in six games this month thus far.
The most impressive part of the weekend’s series with the Yankees was how, even with just one real starting pitcher going over the three days, the Mets were able to hold their own against the Yankees. On Friday, a bullpen game looked, at times, to be getting out of control, but the Mets powered back and took a nice back and forth game from the Yanks. Saturday saw Frankie Montas scuffle again, but that was somewhat undercut by the offensive onslaught that the Mets unleashed, scoring 12 runs, including seven against starter Carlos Rondón. Sunday saw the Mets facing one of the best pitchers in the league in Max Fried and, while they lost the game, they kept pace with Fried and more lost because of poor managerial decisions and atrocious umpiring.
While the Mets need a spot starter or a bullpen game for Thursday in Baltimore, they are getting some help this week, with Kodai Senga hopefully starting Friday’s series opener against the Royals and, again hopefully, Sean Manaea pitching the first half finale on Sunday. That means that the Mets will start off the second half with the starting five that they expected to leave spring training with: Senga, Manaea, Montas, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes.
Just as important as the pitching holding its own against the Yankees was the offense continuing to rake. Well, at least the ‘big four’ as they’ve been calling them on the SNY broadcast. Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo – along with Jeff McNeil – have all been effective as of late, with Lindor being the least productive. Since June 1, Lindor’s 95 wRC+ is the lowest among the quintet, with Soto in the lead (218 wRC+), Alonso (163 wRC+), Nimmo (156 wRC+), and McNeil (134 wRC+) following.
Over those 33 games, these five players have driven in 110 of the 147 runs the Mets have scored. While that is a testament to their performance, perhaps the Mets wouldn’t be 16-17 over that span if players like Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, and Tyrone Taylor were hitting more.
But there is some help there as well, as Jesse Winker is set to be activated from the Injured List today after missing the last two months with an oblique strain. With Starling Marte coming up limp in his final at-bat on Sunday, the Mets may make a swap of DHes on the Injured List.
The O’s, occupying last place in the American League East, are coming off a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park, and have gone 6-4 in their last ten games. But despite this surprisingly good last ten games, make no mistake, the Orioles are a very disappointing team in 2025. Despite having a young core featuring future stars like Jackson Holiday, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman, the team simply isn’t keeping pace with its AL East competitors.
The Orioles are currently ranked 22nd in baseball offensively and 27th in pitching according to Fangraphs WAR. There really hasn’t been a breakout player of the season, and many of their young studs have either taken a step back or treaded water. For a team that was projected to be slugging it out with the Yankees atop the division, their skid has been noticeable.
That said, the Mets have not had a very easy time with the American League East this season thus far, losing series to the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, though they did just win the Yankees series and swept the Blue Jays earlier in the year.
With the NL East leading Phillies playing the Giants and Padres before the All-Star break, if the Mets could rack up some wins, it may allow them to end the half back in first place where they spent so much of the year thus far.
Tuesday, July 8: Clay Holmes vs Brandon Young, 6:35 PM EDT on SNY
Holmes (2025): 93.1 IP, 76 K, 39 BB, 11 HR, 2.99 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 76 ERA-
The Mets lost Holmes’s last start, but he’s been fairly successful over his last eight starts, with only his June 19th start against the Braves as an outlier. That start was in the midst of the Mets’ worst skid of the season, and Holmes failing to go five innings didn’t help the overtaxed pitching staff at all.
The biggest issue with Holmes right now is his pitch count and the inability to go deep into games. After reaching the sixth inning from his third start through his thirteenth, Holmes hasn’t left the fifth since June 7th in Colorado. With a still somewhat depleted bullpen, the Mets really need more length out of Holmes.
Young (2025): 16.2 IP, 15 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 7.02 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 177 ERA-
Rookie Brandon Young has started four games for the Orioles this season, being sent down after his first two appearances in late April before being recalled for a pair of starts against the Rangers late last month. In all four starts, Young made it to the fifth inning, but he’s only recorded outs in the fifth once. In his first two starts, walks were an issue, with eight being dealt over eight and two-thirds innings. Since his return, the control has been better, but the results haven’t really improved. But the O’s believe in Young enough to add him to the 40-Man roster last offseason to protect him in the Rule 5 draft, and so in an already lost year, Young will likely keep getting reps to build up his confidence and big league experience.
Wednesday, July 9: David Peterson vs Tomoyuki Sugano, 7:05 EDT on SNY
Peterson (2025): 102.0 IP, 87 K, 37 BB, 7 HR, 3.18 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 81 ERA-
To quote Keith Hernandez, Peterson has been ‘steady Eddie’ for the Mets this season, taking the ball every fifth day and being a consistent and effective starter for most of that time. He had back to back poor starts against the Pennsylvanian contingent of the National League in late June, but rebounded really nicely against the Brewers, where he went six and two-thirds and gave up just one earned run.
Sugano (2025): 93.1 IP, 57 K, 19 BB, 19 HR, 4.44 ERA, 5.25 FIP, 112 ERA-
Last season’s Central League MVP for the NPB, Sugano signed a one-year deal with the Orioles in November. In his first 17 MLB starts, the results have been what you’d expect for a player coming over from a different league with a different way of doing things. Sugano had started to settle in nicely, but his lst two starts were rough, with the Rays and the Rangers putting up 13 earned runs in nine and two-thirds innings. Both of those games were stung by the long ball, and with the Mets a formidable power threat, it wouldn’t be surprising if this same issue reared its head on Wednesday night.
Thursday, July 10: TBD vs Charlie Morton, 1:05 EDT on SNY
Morton (2025): 77.1 IP, 84 K, 35 BB, 11 HR, 5.47 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 138 ERA-
18 year veteran Charlie Morton somehow keeps figuring out how to get hitters out. The first bit of the season was quite rough for him, as he was rocking an ERA in the sevens until June 1, but he’s settled in over the last six weeks. He’s not the pitcher he was, but for an Orioles team that has been so full of disappointment, Morton is at least a reliable presence that will hopefully not let the game get too far out of hand.