Can the Mets get back to winning, please?
The New York Mets (45-30) travel to Citizen’s Bank Park for a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies (45-30) starting this evening.
The Mets and Phillies are now tied for top spot in the National League East. This is after the Mets led by as many as five and a half earlier this month. The Mets are coming off of their worst week of baseball of the season, getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays at home and then traveling to the House of Horrors that is Truist Park where the Atlanta Braves made them look terrible for 3 more games.
What else has gone wrong? Well, the Mets placed Tylor Megill on the Injured List with an elbow sprain, and then Max Kranick joined him on the IL for the same reason. The Mets blew two three+ run leads, their once mighty starting pitching is looking rough, and the bats, which were beginning to cook, are back to merely simmering.
We know that all teams, even very good teams, hit skids during the season, but this patch feels especially bad for a few reasons. One, after fearing about the rotation for an entire offseason, there were two and a half months of results to combat that fear. This week has been a manifestation of all of those pre-season fears. Add to that the fact that Frankie Montas, who has been on the shelf since the spring, is ready to make his Mets’ debut but has looked absolutely dreadful in his rehab starts. Sean Manaea is on the way back, but isn’t ready just yet.
The other reason that the sweep at the hands of the Braves feels so bad is because up until relatively recently, the Braves were very bad this season. There is something about the Mets traveling to Georgia that both saps their skills and bolsters their opponents’. Getting swept by a hot Tampa Bay was annoying, but somewhat understandable. Getting swept by the Temu Braves feels like a bad omen that’s going to take some time to shake of.
After getting swept by the Pirates over the first weekend of June, the Phillies have looked like a new team, taking three of four from the Cubs, sweeping the Blue Jays, and taking three of four from the Marlins.
The Phillies’ rotation has been a strength this year, with four pitchers having ERA+s of 118 or higher. They’re sitting about a half a run behind the Mets’ in starters’ ERA, but with the way the Mets’ staff has been trending, that gap is ever-closing. The Phillies right now are without Bryce Harper, which is a small benefit for the Mets, but they’ve been doing fine without him.
After a down year in 2023, Trea Turner has returned to his career norms over the past two seasons and is currently leading the National League in hits. Kyle Schwarber continues to be maddeningly good at hitting the cover off the baseball, with 23 home runs already on the year. Along with Harper, Turner and Schwarber have been keeping the Phillies’ offense rolling, with Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos contributing slightly above average production.
As if this series wasn’t shaping up to be painful enough, the Mets are without a local broadcast all weekend, meaning that we get the dregs of the television experience.
Friday, June 20th: Blade Tidwell vs. Zack Wheeler, 7:15 PM EDT on Apple TV+
Tidwell (Triple-A 2025): 62.1 IP, 73 K, 25 BB, 8 HR, 4.76 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 100 ERA-
According to multiple reports, it appears that Blade Tidwell will make his second big league start tonight. Tidwell started against the Cardinals in early May, and looked decent over his first three innings, but blew up in the fourth, hitting a batter, allowing two walks and three singles that led to four runs scoring. His line that day (3.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K) is not exactly inspiring, but David Stearns and co. seem to have faith in his ability to figure it out, even if he hasn’t exactly been tearing up Triple-A. Things can’t get much worse for the Mets right now, so why not shake things up?
Wheeler (2025): 88.0 IP, 110 K, 19 BB, 10 HR, 2.76 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 68 ERA-
In old friend Wheeler’s last start of May against the Braves, he got lit up for six earned runs over five and a third innings pitched. In his two subsequent starts, he’s gone six innings of one-(earned) run ball, striking out 15 across the two games and walking just one. Wheeler remains one of the absolute best pitchers in the National League, a huge misstep for the Mets’ then front office, and a formidable opponent.
Saturday, June 21: Griffin Canning vs. Mick Abel, 7:15 PM EDT on FOX
Canning (2025): 68.2 IP, 63 K, 33 BB, 8 HR, 3.80 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 98 ERA-
Canning is coming off of his absolute worst start as a Met, not making it through the fifth inning and giving up six earned runs on four hits and five walks. His prior start was slightly better, but saw him tagged by home runs and giving up four runs to a not very good Nationals team. Canning, who has been so sturdy all season, has begun to look like he could use some extra rest and, with injuries to the rotation and some long relief ineffectiveness, it doesn’t look like he’s going to get any.
Abel (2025): 20.1 IP, 17 K, 4 BB, 3 HR, 2.21 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 55 ERA-
Mick Abel was listed as the ninth best prospect in the Phillies system by our friends at the Good Phight earlier this year, and so far, he’s lived up to his hype. Across four starts, he’s only had one real clunker, where the Cubs hit three dingers off him in four innings pitched. In his debut, he struck out nine and walked none and, while none of his subsequent performances have been quite that dominant, he’s looked quite good.
Sunday, June 22: David Peterson vs. Jesús Luzardo, 7:15 PM EDT on ESPN
Peterson (2025): 86.2 IP, 74 K, 28 BB, 4HR, 2.60 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 67 ERA-
There was a period of time on Tuesday night where it looked like David Peterson had a chance – a remote one – at throwing back to back complete games. Bad stuff happened, and that didn’t come to fruition, but Peterson has still looked very, very good this season. He’s limiting home runs, getting a ton of ground balls, and he’s finally looking like the prospect he was often promised to be.
Luzardo (2025): 83.2 IP, 97 K, 28 BB, 7 HR, 4.41 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 109 ERA-
The start of the year was going great for Luzardo, who had a 2.15 ERA over his first 11 starts. However, the train came off the rails in late May, where his ERA jumped over two runs in four starts, with 25 earned runs in 15 and two-thirds innings. While he had one good start against the Cubs (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 0 BB), he has, much like Griffin Canning, looks like he could use a beat right now.