Sometimes the smartest move in a room full of people shouting big numbers is to quietly bet on the guy nobody else is watching closely.
The free agent market for starting pitching has officially lost its mind. We are watching average starters get paid like aces and aces get paid like small nations. With Dylan Cease securing $210 million and rumors swirling that the New York Mets might have to drop $200 million over six years to land Framber Valdez, the cost of doing business has become nauseating. David Stearns needs to find a different angle. He needs to find the inefficiency in the market.
That inefficiency is named Michael King.
High Risk But Even Higher Reward
Let’s be honest about the terrifying part first. King is a walking injury concern. He threw just 74.1 innings last season. You cannot build a rotation entirely on guys who might be watching from the dugout in August. However, when King is on the mound, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
He posted a 3.44 ERA last year while battling through those health issues. The stuff is electric. He possesses the kind of swing-and-miss arsenal that plays in October, which is something the Mets desperately need.
The proposed structure here is the key. You don’t give Michael King seven years. You offer him a high average annual value on a shorter deal. Something like three years and $100 million makes a ton of sense for both sides. It gives King the massive payday he deserves while protecting the team from a long-term albatross if his arm falls off. It fits the Stearns model of maintaining future flexibility while competing right now.
Comparing the Price Tags
Contrast that with the Framber Valdez rumors. The 32-year-old lefty is a workhorse who tossed 192 innings last season with a 3.66 ERA. He is safe. He ranks in the 97th percentile in ground ball rate, which means he keeps the ball in the yard.
But do you really want to be paying a sinkerballer $33 million a year until he is 38?
Valdez relies heavily on contact management. As his velocity naturally ticks down with age, that contact is going to get louder and find more holes. A six-year commitment to Valdez feels like buying a reliable sedan for the price of a Ferrari. It gets you there, but you overpaid significantly for the privilege.
Zac Gallen is another name in the mix, but he’s also volatile, and the underlying metrics are ugly. The Mets have the money, sure. But just because you have the deepest pockets doesn’t mean you should empty them for every shiny object.
The Ceiling is the Point
The Mets are trying to topple the Dodgers and the Braves. You don’t do that by collecting safe, high-floor assets. You do that by acquiring elite talent that can take over a series.
King offers that ceiling. If he stays healthy for 150 innings, he is a Cy Young candidate. If he doesn’t, you are off the hook in three years anyway. The risk is mitigated by the short duration of the contract.
Stearns has spent his entire career looking for value where others see flaws. The rest of the league sees a guy with a scary medical file. The Mets should see a guy who strikes out the world and costs half the total commitment of the other top options. Give King the three-year deal, cross your fingers on the medicals, and watch him dominate the National League East. Sometimes you have to gamble on greatness rather than paying a premium for mediocrity.