The free agent pitching market this winter feels a lot like buying a luxury car with 200,000 miles on it; the prices are astronomical, but the engines look a little shaky. While the New York Mets have the financial muscle to outbid anyone for the top arms available, there is a growing sense that David Stearns isn’t interested in paying ace money for number two starters.
The smartest play on the board isn’t signing a check, but rather making a phone call to Detroit, where the Tigers finally seem ready to listen on their crown jewel.
For weeks, the industry assumption was that Detroit would clutch Tarik Skubal tight, hoping to build around him, but the winds have shifted dramatically in the last few days.
ESPN’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell that changes the entire calculus for contenders, noting, “A highly ranked executive I talked to yesterday said ‘Yeah, I think they are gonna trade him.’” That single sentence transforms Skubal from a pipe dream into a tangible target, and for a Mets team looking to solidify a World Series rotation, it is the green light they have been waiting for.
Tarik Skubal Is the Surest Bet in Baseball
If you are going to trade legitimate prospect capital, you don’t do it for a project; you do it for a terminator, and Skubal fits that description perfectly. The 29-year-old lefty is coming off a season that wasn’t just good, it was clinically dominant, posting a 2.21 ERA across 195.1 innings of work. He struck out 11.10 batters per nine innings while keeping the ball on the ground at a 41% clip, a combination that makes him nearly immune to the volatility that plagues most modern pitchers.
What makes Skubal truly terrifying for opponents isn’t just the raw stuff, but his ability to suffocate rallies before they start. He posted an absurd 80.6% left-on-base rate last season, proving that he doesn’t crack under pressure, and his allergy to walking batters means he rarely beats himself.
Acquiring Skubal isn’t just adding a starter; it is essentially guaranteeing a win every fifth day provided the offense can scratch across a few runs.
The Cost of Doing Business for the Mets
Let’s be clear: the Tigers aren’t going to give away a Cy Young-caliber arm for spare parts, even if he is entering the final year of his contract.
A trade of this magnitude is going to hurt, likely requiring a package headlined by premium talents like Jett Williams or rising pitching star Jonah Tong — maybe even both. It is a steep price to pay for a “rental,” and there will undoubtedly be fans in Queens hesitant to mortgage the future for one season of production.
However, viewing Skubal as a mere rental ignores the unique advantage Steve Cohen brings to the table: the ability to extend anyone, anytime.
The Mets have the financial fortitude to trade for Skubal and immediately lock him up with a long-term extension, effectively bypassing the uncertainty of free agency entirely. You aren’t trading the farm for one summer; you are trading it to secure an ace for the next five years without having to bid against the Dodgers or Yankees on the open market.
A Perfect Storm for David Stearns
The Mets could certainly settle for a shorter-term free agent deal with a solid arm like Michael King, but that feels like a move designed to compete, not to dominate. Stearns has always hunted value, but he also knows when to push his chips into the middle of the table, and a disgruntled Tigers front office realizing they need to reset is the perfect opportunity. The supply of elite pitching is nonexistent right now, making Skubal the only true game-changer available.
Opportunity rarely knocks this loudly in the offseason, especially regarding a pitcher who doesn’t give up home runs and eats innings like clockwork. The Mets have the prospects to entice Detroit and the money to keep Skubal in Queens for the rest of his prime. It’s time to stop worrying about the farm system rankings and start worrying about where to put the World Series trophy.