Let’s cut to the chase: The New York Mets just handed the keys to center field to Luis Robert Jr., and nobody has a clue if the car is going to start or explode.
Acquiring the 28-year-old from the Chicago White Sox is the definition of a “high-variance” move. On one hand, you have a guy who looks like a created player in a video game; on the other, you have a hitter who has spent the last two seasons looking completely lost at the plate.
David Stearns is betting on the ceiling, but we need to be honest about the floor because it’s lower than a subway track. Over the last two seasons, Robert has been roughly 16% below league average offensively, a cliff-dive from the superstar trajectory he was on just a few years ago. The slugging percentage has evaporated, the on-base skills have withered, and the strikeouts have piled up like trash on a city sidewalk.
The Offensive “Red Flags” Are Glaring for the Mets
If you want to be worried, the data gives you plenty of ammunition. In 2025, Robert slashed a meager .223/.297/.364, numbers that look more like a backup catcher than a franchise cornerstone. The underlying metrics are even uglier: he ranked in the 8th percentile for Squared-Up Percentage and the 9th percentile for Whiff Rate, suggesting he isn’t just getting unlucky—he is missing the ball entirely.
His plate discipline remains a major concern, as evidenced by a 20th percentile Chase Rate and a 19th percentile Strikeout Rate. When he does make contact, it hasn’t been the loud contact we’re used to, with his Hard-Hit Rate sitting in the 42nd percentile.
Why the “Gold Glove” Floor Makes This Worth It
But here is why this gamble might actually work: even if Robert never hits 38 homers again, he is still an elite athlete who changes the game with his glove. The Mets didn’t just acquire a struggling hitter; they acquired a defensive savant. Last season, Robert patrolled center field for 865.2 innings and racked up seven outs above average (OAA) and a seven Fielding Run Value.
He ranks in the 93rd percentile for Range (OAA) and possesses 90th percentile Sprint Speed, meaning he covers ground that other outfielders can only dream of. In a spacious Citi Field, that defense is invaluable.
The Mets are hoping a change of scenery and a competitive lineup can unlock the 2023 version of Robert, the one who mashed 38 homers and posted a 129 wRC+. But even if that guy is gone forever, getting a Gold Glove center fielder with 92nd percentile Bat Speed is a gamble you take ten times out of ten.