Rarely in Mets history has a new head of baseball operations seemed so specifically relevant to an opening series.
When you sit down to start writing about a baseball season, it’s not common to immediately think of your favorite team’s head of baseball operations. But with the Mets starting their 2024 season against the Brewers, the team that new president of baseball operations David Stearns used to run, it’s impossible to avoid leading with that.
Stearns was named the Brewers’ new general manager ahead of the 2015 season, and he spent four years in that role before being promoted to president of baseball operations, a role in which he also spent four seasons before stepping down after the conclusion of the season in 2022. The Brewers started his tenure with a 68-win season in 2015, marginally improved by winning 73 games in 2016, and became a perennial competitive team in 2017 as they won 86 games and finished second in the National League Central. They didn’t make the playoffs that year, but they did in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021—averaging 93 wins in the three full-length seasons during that span. In 2022, they again won 86 games and missed the playoffs, and while Stearns wasn’t working the president of baseball operations role in 2023, a team that he had very largely constructed won 92 games and made the playoffs.
With all of that said, it’s understandable that Mets fans were excited when the news broke that he had been hired as the Mets’ new president of baseball operations back in September. From the time that Steve Cohen purchased the team until Stearns was officially introduced in October, Cohen himself had expressed a desire to hire someone into that role but insisted that he wanted the right person. In Stearns, who grew up in Manhattan as a Mets fan, Cohen found his right person.
In the months since then, Stearns has overseen an offseason that mostly saw the team make a bunch of logical if unexciting moves. The Mets bought low in the vast majority of the moves they made, bringing in some players who struggled mightily in 2023 but might be able to bounce back. The team’s splashiest move came just last week, as the Mets signed J.D. Martinez to a one-year deal, giving them a major boost at designated hitter.
Even with that signing, the Mets aren’t expected to win the National League East. As of Monday evening, the projected standings at Baseball Prospectus have the Mets winning just shy of 84 games, very slightly behind the Phillies, who are projected to win just over 84. Seven teams are projected to win between 80 and 89 games, and if things were to play out that way—with one of them winning the NL Central—three of the remaining six would make the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Mets have a realistic shot at being one of those three teams.
As for the Brewers, an offseason that saw their former president of baseball operations leave also saw 2021 Cy Young winner and ace of the rotation Corbin Burnes dealt to the Orioles. Brandon Woodruff is out for the entire year with a shoulder injury, but he did sign back with the team on a two-year deal after he was non-tendered in hopes of having him back in the rotation in 2025.
Rhys Hoskins was a significant addition, and he’ll presumably slot into the middle of the team’s lineup. He, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich are undoubtedly the most fearsome bats in that lineup for opposing pitchers.
Those same projected standings see Milwaukee winning 79 games this year, which isn’t too shabby considering the departure of Burnes and the absence of Woodruff.
Friday, March 29, Game 1: José Quintana vs. Freddy Peralta, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Quintana: With Kodai Senga on the injured list to start the season, the Mets could have really gone with any of their other starting pitchers for Opening Day, but the elder statesman of the rotation gets the nod here. Among the five pitchers in the rotation to start the season, Quintana is one of just two who pitched for the Mets in 2023—with the other being Tylor Megill. Of those two, Quintana was certainly the better pitcher last year, albeit in an injury-shortened season that saw him make his debut with the team after the All-Star break. He made 13 starts, threw 75.2 innings, and had a 3.57 ERA with a 3.52 FIP. A fully healthy season with similar numbers from Quintana would help the Mets significantly.
Peralta: Having been in a rotation with Burnes and Woodruff for the past few years, it was sometimes easy to forget that Peralta is quite capable of pitching well, too. His best season came in 2021, as he put up a 2.88 ERA in 144.1 innings of work. but he’s been no slouch over the past couple of seasons. While he was limited to just 78.0 innings in 2022, he finished that year with a 3.58 ERA. And in 165.2 innings in 2023—a career high—he wound up with a 3.86 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates were both very good, but that increasing ERA could be attributed to a home run issue last year. On average, he gave up 1.41 home runs per nine innings, by far his highest mark in a single season since he struggled with home runs back in 2019.
Saturday, March 30, Game 2: Luis Severino vs. TBD, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Severino: Spring training stats don’t mean much of anything, but Severino looked good in the innings he pitched in Florida. Given how poorly he pitched last year, that was a source of at least some optimism heading into his first start as a Met—and his first anywhere other than with the Yankees.
Sunday, March 31, Game 3: Tylor Megill vs. Colin Rea, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Megill: Having won the lone open spot in the rotation in spring training, Megill will once again be trying to prove that he can be more than a fifth starter. To be clear, the overall body of work that he’s put together over the past three seasons is enough to say that he’s a major league pitcher. Inspired by Senga, he’s worked a forkball into his pitch mix, and it’ll be interesting to see if he improves enough while Senga is sidelined to stay in the big leagues upon Senga’s return.
Rea: You may remember the story about a pitcher being traded from the Padres to the Marlins only to suffer an elbow injury, making the Marlins furious to the point that they were able to send him back to the Padres. That was Rea. Since then, he’s pitched for the Cubs, in Japan, and for the Brewers. Last year, Rea had a 4.55 ERA in 124.2 innings over the course of 26 appearances, 22 of which were starts. His strikeout late was fairly low, his walk rate was good, and he had a home run problem, giving up 1.66 per nine innings.