The New York Mets continue their tough stretch of schedule with a team that, historically, often trips at the finish line at the worst time.
That would be the Seattle Mariners who, despite having lost their last two, have played well this month. An eight-game winning streak preceded those two losses, and the M’s are only 1.5 games behind the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West.
The Mets, contrastingly, are practically treading water. They haven’t won consecutive games in nearly three weeks, and now have to contend with a Seattle team known for its pitching.
And in turn, they’ll send Sean Manaea to the mound. The big lefty knows the Mariners well after starting his career in Oakland, and the Mets need some win of some sort to spark something, anything, to finish the season strong.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY
Betting Line: Mets (-135) +1.5, O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: A true hot-cold matchup. In a weird way, the Mets and Mariners are almost kindred spirits. For years, the Mets have found more and more creative ways to lose. The Mariners, by and large, are the unluckiest team in baseball history. FiveThirtyEight even did a deep dive on the subject almost a decade ago.
And now, the two meet like two oncoming trains at Citi Field. The 7-Train and LIRR about to barrel into each other. One running hot, the other running cold. A rock solid pitching staff versus one scampering around like a wayward chicken. The numbers favor Seattle, but baseball history might rear her ugly head once again.
Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo (8-6, 3.19 ERA) vs Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.33 ERA). Manaea might be the perfect man for the Mets to have on the mound tonight and for one reason. The big lefty spent the first half of his career with the A’s and faced their AL West rival Mariners several times. He has a 3.88 ERA in 18 starts against them along with an 8-8 record.
On the Seattle side, the veteran Castillo is having an interesting year. His counting and underlying stats aren’t all bad, but his Stuff+ is a career-worst 94, and the baseline average is 100. What this means is that despite getting the desired results, the movement on Castillo’s pitches is largely down compared to recent years.
His Location+ and Pitching+, on the other hand, are 105 and 103. As in, despite his pitches not looking as sharp, Castillo manages to control the strike zone and make good pitching decisions. That could benefit him against the slumping Mets.
X-Factor: Mets bullpen. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza would love nothing more than some length from Manaea because the Mets’ bullpen, in a nutshell, is a house of cards. Well, at least the bridge to closer Edwin Diaz. Ryan Helsley, a former All-Star closer with the Cardinals, has a 5.40 ERA since coming to New York at the trade deadline. Submariner Tyler Rogers has pitched well overall, but is giving up more hits than normal.
It could just be a bad week or two, but the Mets cannot afford to always have the paddles waiting for whenever the pitchers need them. At some point, the bullpen needs to show up not just on the mound, but in the game.
Prediction. There’s potential for a strong pitching matchup here, even if Manaea only winds up going five innings. Thus, if you’re on New York sports betting apps or even NJ online casinos, you’ve gots some options. Namely, betting the over on Castillo’s strikeouts could work out well.
But otherwise? Bet the Mariners moneyline and the over if you’re feeling aggressive. Never a bad idea for Pete Alonso or Cal Raleigh home run parlays either! Mariners 6, Mets 2.
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