It’s been a rough few weeks for the Mets. While they managed to take two of three in their series against the Mariners this weekend, it was their first series win since they swept the Giants all the way back on the weekend of July 25. Since then, New York has gone just 4-14 and not only fallen five games back of the Phillies in the NL East, but is getting challenged by the insurgent Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite that brutal stretch of play in recent weeks, this isn’t exactly a new phenomenon. While the club was at one point up 5.5 games in the division, that was nearly two months ago at this point. They’ve gone 21-34 since then, good for a .318 winning percentage that falls between the full-season figures posted by the White Sox (.355) and Rockies (.282).
That makes the final six weeks of the regular season more important for the Mets than their fans could’ve imagined during their strong first half. The question for the Mets is less about the possibility of an NL East title and a bye through the Wild Card round at this point, and more about if they’ll be able to squeak into the postseason at all. The club attempted to break into what, at the time, looked to be a fairly wide-open race for a bye to the NLDS when they made a number of aggressive, buy-side trades in the run-up to the trade deadline.
Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto joined Edwin Diaz at the back of what was expected to become the most fearsome bullpen in the league, and Cedric Mullins was brought in to plug the one hole on the team’s roster. The results of those trades have been mixed to this point, Soto (8 1/3 scoreless innings) and Rogers (1.93 ERA in 9 1/3 innings) have both excelled to this point, but Helsley has struggled to an ugly 7.11 ERA in eight appearances for the Mets so far, with four additional unearned runs allowed as well. Meanwhile, Mullins has a paltry .255 on-base percentage with a 29.1% strikeout rate since arriving in the Big Apple.
Perhaps the failings of Helsley and Mullins in their first few games with the team could be overlooked if the rest of the team was performing better, but the club’s internal core hasn’t exactly impressed lately either. Only six teams in baseball have scored fewer runs than the Mets since June 13, and while the offense has picked things up in recent weeks (124 wRC+ in August) their run prevention has taken a nosedive. Only four teams (Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies) have allowed more runs to score than the Mets since the start of August, and the decision not to bring in a starter at the deadline is looking particularly disastrous given the club’s rotation has put together a brutal 6.23 ERA in the weeks following the end of trade season.
Bleak as things have looked in recent weeks, however, that shouldn’t be taken to mean there’s no reason for optimism. After all, the Mets are still in playoff position even after all of those struggles. Only Cincinnati has a record above .500 among NL clubs not currently in playoff position, meaning the Mets are in a much more comfortable spot than they would be if they were in the AL, where teams like the Royals and Guardians are sticking around the periphery of the Wild Card race with solid records. While the Reds (36-30 since the start of June) have looked good lately thanks to a fantastic rotation, their offense hasn’t looked especially threatening at any point in the year. Mets superstars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are both firing on all cylinders offensively in recent weeks, by contrast, and that could help stave off Cincinnati unless the Reds’ bats get going.
Even if the Reds stick around in the race long-term, it’s at least possible that another team in the NL playoff picture could start to struggle. The Cubs have scored the fewest runs in baseball since July 1 after starting the year as an offensive juggernaut. With pitchers like Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd reaching uncharted territory in terms of workload and a big series against Milwaukee this week, their currently stable position in the NL playoff picture could look much less secure in a hurry. The Phillies, meanwhile, lost Zack Wheeler for an uncertain amount of time over the weekend. While Aaron Nola returned from the shelf to replace him in the rotation, his first start back (six earned runs surrendered in 2 1/3 innings to the lowly Nationals) didn’t exactly inspire confidence.
How do MLBTR readers view the Mets’ hopes of making a second consecutive postseason appearance this year? Will they be able to hold on despite their recent struggles, or will the rest of the NL playoff field manage to push them out? Have your say in the poll below:
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