Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

A record $340MM payroll couldn’t even guarantee the Mets a playoff spot, as the Reds edged New York out of a wild card berth via tiebreaker on the final day of the regular season.  The near-miss was the final insult after a disastrous second half, leaving the Amazins with plenty of roster decisions and perhaps some bigger-picture questions to answer during what is sure to be a busy offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Juan Soto, OF: $643.125MM through 2039 (player opt-out after 2029 season, but Mets can override opt-out by adding $40MM to final 10 years of contract)
• Francisco Lindor, SS: $192MM through 2031 ($5MM deferred annually)
• Brandon Nimmo, OF: $101.25MM through 2030
• Sean Manaea, SP: $50MM through 2027 ($7.75MM deferred annually)
• Kodai Senga, SP: $42MM through 2027 (Mets receive $15MM club option for 2028 if Senga misses at least 130 consecutive days due to elbow injury/Tommy John surgery)
• Clay Holmes, SP: $25MM through 2027 (Holmes can opt out after 2026 season)
• Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $2M buyout of $15.75MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

• Edwin Diaz, RP: $18.5MM player options for 2026 and 2027 seasons (Diaz must decide on both options this offseason; if he remains, Mets hold $17.25MM club option for 2028 season with $1MM buyout)
• Pete Alonso, 1B: $24MM player option for 2026 (Alonso has already stated he is opting out)
• Frankie Montas, SP: $17MM player option for 2026
• A.J. Minter, RP: $11M player option for 2026
• Brooks Raley, RP: $4.75MM club option for 2026 ($750K buyout)
• Drew Smith, RP: $2MM club option for 2026

2026 financial commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $201.625MM
Total future commitments (assuming Diaz and Alonso opt out): $1,105,875,000

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM
• Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM
• David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM
• Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM
• Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM
• Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM
• Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM
• Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM
• Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MM
• Non-tender candidates: Madrigal, Kranick, Megill, Garrett

Free Agents

• Diaz (if he opts out), Alonso, Starling Marte, Ryan Helsley, Cedric Mullins, Gregory Soto, Tyler Rogers, Jesse Winker, Ryne Stanek, Griffin Canning

In almost a direct inverse of their magical 2024 season, the 2025 Mets looked like arguably baseball’s best team over the first two and a half months before the bottom fell out.  The club was 45-24 at the end of play on June 12, but Friday, June 13 ended up being the start of a Citi Field horror movie — New York posted just a 38-55 record the rest of the way, leading to increased panic in Queens as it became apparent that the season was slipping away.

Several coaches are already on the way out, including pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and hitting coaches Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes.  But, manager Carlos Mendoza is staying, and president of baseball operations David Stearns isn’t being fired two seasons into his tenure after owner Steve Cohen pursued Stearns for years.  Cohen has already issued a public apology for how the Mets’ season ended, and it remains to be seen how the owner will react in the face of such a disappointing result.

If you’re assuming the reaction will be “Cohen spends another fortune in free agency,” that can’t be ruled out.  Last winter’s record-breaking Juan Soto contract notwithstanding, Stearns’ usual strategy in free agency is to aim for shorter-term and relatively less expensive deals on the open market.  This approach simply didn’t work in 2025, and during his wrap-up press conference earlier this week, Stearns took responsibility for not doing enough to reinforce his pitching staff either last winter or during the season when the rotation fell apart.