Call it luck or a well-timed rain delay, but we were incorrect in predicting Friday’s NLCS rematch between the Mets and Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw looked sharp in two innings before the weather ended his night early, and LA staved off a Mets comeback to finally win in 13 innings, 7-5.
Clearer skies are expected for Saturday’s nighttime tilt, and the skidding Mets are now three games behind the Phillies in the NL East. They’ll need David Peterson to be at his best against a fully loaded Los Angeles lineup.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Run Line: Mets -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Tony Gonsolin (2-0, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Peterson (2-2, 2.86 ERA). Peterson has continued his strong season with an equally solid May, posting a 2.40 ERA in three starts this month. However, that’s largely luck. His FIP over that stretch is 4.63, and Peterson has also walked 11 in 18 innings. The big lefty also hasn’t pitched well against LA, posting a 5.74 ERA in four games (three starts).
Gonsolin has dealt with similar struggles working his way back from both Tommy John surgery and a bad back. He has nine walks in 14 innings this month. On the pitching matchup alone, it could be anyone’s game.
X-Factor: The top of the order. Manager Carlos Mendoza tried something new on Friday, rolling out the top half of his lineup as such: Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso. The four went a combined 2 for 16 with three runs scored and an RBI. Both hits belonged to Marte, and the RBI was off an Alonso sac fly.
This performance is simply unacceptable not just from the Mets’ lineup, but that of any team. The top third of LA’s lineup features three former MVPs: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. Granted, this trio went a combined 1 for 13 on Friday, but the Dodgers’ lineup is deep enough that it didn’t matter. The Mets lucked out enough to catch closer Tanner Scott on a bad night, and yet still lost.
Until the top of the lineup shows up, especially Soto and his .236 batting average, New York will have to scrap for runs.
Prediction: Oddly enough, I’m going to roll with the Mets for Saturday’s national game. It won’t be a blowout, but Gonsolin’s pitch mix leaves room for him running into trouble with walks again. Roll the moneyline and possibly the over if you’re on New York sports betting apps, and add a Lindor or Alonso hit parlay to be aggressive. Mets 6, Dodgers 3
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