You’ll recall that yesterday, we predicted the New York Mets would not only beat the Philadelphia Phillies in their NLDS rematch, but new star outfielder Juan Soto would carry the evening.
Well, the Mets did win 5-4, except without Soto. He was 0 for 4 with a strikeout and never hit the ball out of the infield. Moreover, New York needed closer Edwin Diaz midway through the ninth, and he gave up Bryson Stott’s three-run shot before notching two strikeouts for the finish.
Tuesday should offer a different game altogether with new pitchers and a new outlook.
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: TBS, SNY
Run Line: Mets +1.5, O/U 7.5
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sanchez (2-0, 2.96 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (2-1, 3.43 ERA). Early on, Sanchez has been in ace mode for the Phils. The skinny sinkerballer is allowing more hard contact and has gotten a little lucky, but luck doesn’t lead to more strikeouts. Sanchez, who has pitched well against New York in his career, has posted almost 11.5 K/9 this year, up from nearly 7.6 last season.
Canning is a different story. This is his first year in New York after five uninspiring years with the Angels. He has a basic fastball/slider/changeup mix, but what stands out this year his his sudden uptick in ground balls. His rate (GB%) is a career-best 53.6%, per Fangraphs, and he isn’t otherwise overachieving. If he can keep his fastball down and the grounders aplenty, the Mets have a chance.
X-Factor: Juan Soto. It’s still way too early to write off Soto’s $765 million contract as a bust, but it’s getting harder to ignore his struggles. He was batting .322 with five home runs and 20 RBI this time last year, and Pete Alonso is performing well enough that the “I don’t have Aaron Judge behind me” excuse won’t fly.
We already know that Juan Soto has good numbers against the Phillies and even greater ones at Citi Field. It’s not that he needs to get out of his head and just play the game except…it kind of is.
Prediction: Sorry, Mets fans, but Philly bites back today. Canning has been solid, but Sanchez has clearly grown following last year’s breakout campaign. This won’t necessarily be a laugher or blowout, but Philly should control the game start to finish. Expect lots of hard contact both on the ground and through the air.
And if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps? Roll with the Phillies run line and the over.
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