The New York Mets just have the Phillies’ number at Citi Field this year. Winning in extra innings on Tuesday gave the team the series and a chance for a sweep Wednesday.
Additionally, this wouldn’t just be a series sweep, but a super-sweep of sorts. This evening marks Philadelphia’s last chance to win at Citi Field this year, and they’ve already seen their lead in the NL East shrink to five games.
Now, the Phils send an aging, overachieving veteran with diminishing stuff to the mound to try and avoid the sweep. The Mets, meanwhile, turn to their latest pitching phenom to see if lightning strikes thrice.
Time: 7:10 pm ET
TV: SNY
Betting Line: Mets -1.5 (-160), O/U 8.5
Key Storyline: The biggest start of Nolan McLean’s career. Two starts into his young MLB tenure, and Nolan McLean has done nothing but impressed. He debuted with 5.1 shutout innings against the Mariners and struck out eight, but also issued four walks. His next start, against a much more powerful Braves lineup, yielded seven innings of two-run ball and seven strikeouts with zero walks.
The Phillies’ lineup is, hands down, the toughest one McLean will have faced thus far. Forget that the Mets own the Phillies in Queens this season. A lineup featuring future Hall of Famer Bryce Harper, fan favorite Trea Turner, and likely MVP candidate Kyle Schwarber is nightmare fuel for any pitcher. Let’s see if the young righty steps up again to bring New York an inch closer to first place.
Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44 ERA) vs Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46 ERA). Working in McLean’s favor is that even if he’s not at his best, the Mets should give him some run support against Walker. The big righty is prone to home runs and has bounced back and forth between the bullpen and rotation this season. His 3.44 ERA is overshadowed by a 4.78 FIP and 4.13 xERA.
And to get deeper into the underlying metrics, Walker’s Stuff+ is only 91, his Pitching+ isn’t much better at 93, but his Location + is barely above average at 101. That means that despite Walker not having great movement or break on his pitches along with not making the best pitching decisions? He’s finding the strike zone just enough to be somewhat effective.
Granted, McLean’s Location+ is only 93, about seven points below average, and that makes sense. He throws his curveball and sweeper nearly 46.5% of the time. That means relying on whiffs and being near perfect. His Stuff+ and Pitching+, on the other hand, are 112 and 105.
X-Factor: Bullpens. The Phillies’ bullpen turned Monday’s loss into a blowout, and a rare off night from Jhoan Duran led to Brandon Nimmo’s walk-off on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Mets blew their own 5-3 lead thanks to Ryan Helsley’s continued struggles since coming over from the Cardinals a month ago. The hard-throwing righty has a 10.38 ERA since donning the orange and blue.
The Mets’ relievers rank around the middle of the pack, 14th in bullpen ERA. The Phillies’ continued struggles have them in the lower tier at 23rd. In Philly’s case, they simply can’t afford to make mistakes this game.
Prediction. Get out the brooms, fans. Nolan McLean is young, but his stuff transcends nasty. The Phillies’ bats, meanwhile, have proven streaky yet again. If you’re on New York sports betting apps or New Jersey online casinos, ride the Mets’ run line and the over. Mark Vientos is also on a nine-game hitting streak, so he’s worth a parlay. So is the over on MacLean’s strikeouts. Either way, Mets win this one in a walk. Mets 8, Phillies 3.
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