Clay Holmes will seek his first win with the New York Mets (7-3) when he faces the Miami Marlins (5-5) on Tuesday afternoon.
It’s been a mixed bag for Holmes, who was an All-Star closer for the crosstown rival Yankees before signing to start with the Mets. He has a 2.89 ERA and 3.17 FIP, but hasn’t kept runners off the bases. Too many hits and walks have kept him from completing a full five innings in both of his starts.
The Marlins, meanwhile, have a new attitude with new manager and former Dodgers coach Clayton McCullough. They still aren’t a playoff team, but in a much better position considering they were 1-9 through ten games last year. They’ll counter with righty Conor Gillispie, a former Cleveland prospect signed as a free agent earlier this year.
Another Mets win means a step closer to overtaking the Phillies for first place in the NL East, so can Holmes finally find his footing?
Time: 4:10 pm ET
TV: SNY
Run Line: Mets -1.5
States: NY, NJ, PA, CT, IA, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, VA, WV, WY / Gambling problem? Call 1 – 800 – GAMBLER.
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Swinging Hot. Pete Alonso is only a .235 hitter against Miami, but has 29 career home runs against the Marlins. That’s more than he has against any other team, and remember he hit two big homers in Miami last week. It’s never a bad idea to bet the Polar Bear to hit a home run, especially against the borderline Quadruple-A Fish.
This could also be a good game for Juan Soto to tee off a bit. He’s hit .302 against the Marlins and put the Mets on the board with a double last night. It’ll be a cold and windy day at Citi Field, but don’t count out his superstar power.
X-Factor: Clay Holmes. Tuesday marks Holmes’ third start with the Mets, and could provide a clearer picture into his future. His underlying numbers aren’t bad, and he did a good job adding the new “kick change” to his pitch mix. Holmes has also done a great job keeping the ball on the ground, posting a groundball rate (GB%) at almost 68%.
That bodes well for Holmes and his demon sinker. Miami’s hitters have an MLB-worst GB% at 51.2%. If he can fight through the cold air and keep the ball down, not to mention leaning less on the sinker and sweeper, Holmes could find himself back in the New York groove.
Prediction: Even if the weather means a low-scoring affair, the Mets’ lineup is stacked compared to Miami’s. The Marlins will keep things close for an inning or two, but that’s it. They don’t have the bats nor the arms to keep up with the Mets, and this could be a good New York sports betting opportunity to play the run line Mets defeat Marlins 4-1.
Note that there’s also a FanDuel NY Promo offering a 50% profit boost for a player of your choice to hit a home run. Max bet is $10.
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