It’s time for the Mets to play some indoor baseball.
Fresh off a dramatic win at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon, the Mets (16-15) are set to begin a three-game series against the Rays (14-18) in Tampa Bay. The biggest news for the Mets heading into the series is that Christian Scott will make his major league debut during it.
At the moment, the Mets and Reds are tied for the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Thinking about the playoff race this early feels a little foolish, but it’s worth noting that being just above .500 is enough to be in the mix for postseason play, as has generally been the case in the brief period of MLB’s expanded playoffs.
That the Rays have a losing record right now is something of a rarity. There’s still plenty of time for them to turn things around, but 2017 was the last season that saw the Rays finish the year with a losing record.
Tampa Bay’s offense is struggling this year with 3.75 runs scored per game, the 8th-lowest mark in baseball. Collectively, the team has hit .238/.301/.352 with a 94 wRC+. For the sake of comparison the Mets have averaged 4.35 runs scored per game with a .237/.314/.370 line and a 102 wRC+.
Three hitters have really carried the Rays thus far: Richie Palacios (163 wRC+), Isaac Paredes (151 wRC+), and Ben Rortvedt (145 wRC+). Former Mets shortstop Amed Rosario is with the team now, and he’s gotten off to a solid start with his new team with a .295/.315/.419 line and a 114 wRC+.
Several Rays hitters are hitting significantly worse than they did last year, and Yandy Díaz is the most notable of that bunch. Last year, he won the American League batting title as he he hit .330/.410/.522 with a 164 wRC+. And while that was probably always likely to be his career year, he’s dropped of massively with a .211/.279/.276 line and a 68 wRC+ through 136 plate appearances this year. A little over a month into the season, he’s sitting below replacement level by fWAR.
As for the other hitters who are struggling compared to last year, well, they include: Harold Ramírez (128 wRC+ in 2023, 69 wRC+ in 2024), Randy Arozarena (126 wRC+ in 2023, 39 wRC+ in 2024), Brandon Lowe (117 wRC+ in 2023, 80 wRC+ in 2024), and Jose Siri (106 wRC+ in 2023, 75 wRC+ in 2024). It’s still early, and many—if not all—of those hitters figure to finish the season with better numbers than they have now. But the Mets might be catching the Rays at a relatively good time.
On the run prevention side of things, the Rays’ rotation has a 3.94 ERA that ranks 15th in baseball—just 0.02 ahead of the Mets’ rotation, which ranks 16th. But the bullpen is where the Rays have had a major problem, as the team’s relievers rank dead last in baseball with a 5.55 ERA. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has thrown 123.1 innings, to boot, the seventh-heaviest workload in the league thus far.
Given the Mets’ propensity for scoring runs late in games and their own bullpen’s good performance, the Mets might be able to pounce on opportunities to win games late, especially if Tampa’s bats don’t all wake up at the same time in the series.
Friday, May 3: Jose Quintana vs. Aaron Civale, 6:50 PM EDT on SNY
Quintana (2024): 33.2 IP, 23 K, 15 BB, 3 HR, 3.48 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 89 ERA-
Quitana’s most recent start was his best of the season, as he went eight innings and allowed just one run on three hits in a game that saw the Mets beat the Cardinals in extra innings. He only notched three strikeout along the way, but more importantly, he only walked one hitter. Walks typically haven’t been a problem for Quintana over the course of his career, but his walk rate had been high to begin this season.
Civale (2024): 32.0 IP, 34 K, 9 BB, 6 HR, 5.06 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 139 ERA-
Last summer, the Guardians dealt Civale to the Rays after thirteen starts in which he had a 2.84 ERA. And while it seems like the Rays turn all pitchers around for the better after acquiring them from other organizations, Civale has struggled in his brief time with the team. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA in ten starts following the trade, and the results haven’t been much better in his first six starts this year. His strikeout and walk rates are nearly identical to his 2023 numbers, but home runs have been his weakness—especially this year.
Saturday, May 4: Christian Scott vs. Zack Littell, 7:15 PM EDT on FOX
Scott (2024, Triple-A): 25.1 IP, 36 K, 6 BB, 7 HR, 3.20 ERA, 5.14 FIP
The 24-year-old Scott is set to make his major league debut in the middle game of the series, and he’s been nothing short of fantastic when it comes to strikeouts at the Triple-A level to start the season. Scott finished last season with Double-A Binghamton and has seen his strikeout rate get even better after starting this season in Syracuse. Home runs have been his only flaw this year, but there’s every reason to be excited about seeing him pitch in a major league game.
Littell (2024): 33.0 IP, 35 K, 5 BB, 3 HR, 3.27 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 90 ERA-
Like Aaron Civale, Littell was picked up by the Rays during the 2023 season—a waiver claim from the Red Sox just shy of a year ago. In 26 appearances, 14 of which were starts, he had a 3.93 ERA and a 3.99 FIP with the Rays after joining them last year. And while he’s made far more appearances as a reliever than a starter over the course of his major league career, Littell has appeared exclusively as a starter this year. The results have been very good.
Sunday, May 5: Luis Severino vs. Ryan Pepiot, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Severino (2024): 35.0 IP, 31 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 2.31 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 59 ERA-
The Mets couldn’t have dreamt up a better start to Severino’s first season with the team, sa the 30-year-old ranks 18th among 84 qualified starting pitchers in ERA right now. While his strikeout rate has remained similar to his relatively low rate from last year with the Yankees, he’s drastically cut down on the rate at which he’s allowed home runs and upped his ground ball rate by ten percentage points.
Pepiot (2024): 34.2 IP, 38 K, 10 BB, 4 HR, 3.12 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 85 ERA-
Pepiot completes the set of Rays pitchers this weekend who were acquired by the team in 2023. Unlike the other two starters in this series, though, Pepiot joined the Rays in the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers in mid-December. At the time, he had logged 78.1 innings over the course of the 2022 and 2023 seasons with a 2.76 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates this year are both better than the major league average for starting pitchers.