The high of April always fades into the grind of May, and the New York Mets are seeing that firsthand with Tylor Megill.
After storming out of the gates looking like a legitimate breakout candidate, Megill is now teetering on the edge of a complete regression.
This is no longer just a hiccup — it’s a full-on warning light flashing atop the rotation.
The numbers tell a sharp and sudden story
Megill dazzled over his first few starts, boasting a 1.80 ERA in March and following it with a 1.73 ERA in April.
He was commanding the strike zone, generating swings and misses, and limiting damage with surgical precision.
But May has been a different beast.
Over just three starts this month, Megill holds an 8.76 ERA across 12.1 innings.
He’s been tagged for 15 hits and 12 earned runs, giving up four earned in three consecutive outings.
His latest start against the Yankees on Friday might’ve been the toughest pill to swallow — just 2.2 innings, four hits, four runs, and five walks.
Megill couldn’t locate, couldn’t command, and worst of all, couldn’t stop the bleeding.
Still generating whiffs — but losing his grip
Despite the slide, Megill’s strikeout rate remains in the 86th percentile — showing he’s still getting whiffs.
But whiffs without consistency don’t win games, especially not in the gauntlet of the NL East.
His control is wavering, his walk rate is climbing, and his percentiles are beginning to flatten out.
The regression was always a possibility.
Now it’s staring the Mets in the face.
A look at the arsenal under pressure
Megill primarily leans on three pitches — a four-seam fastball, slider, and sinker.
Early in the season, his fastball was locating well up in the zone and setting up his slider to wipe out batters low and away.
But the Yankees weren’t biting on Friday.
They waited him out, fouled off tough pitches, and pounced when he missed spots.
It raises the question — is this mechanical, mental, or something physical?
Fatigue or discomfort could be playing a role, especially since velocity dips or minor soreness don’t always show up on stat sheets.
Time for the Mets to intervene before it’s too late
Whether Megill is dealing with confidence issues or an underlying injury, the Mets have to get ahead of it.
A bullpen reset, some pitch sequencing adjustments, or even a skipped start might do the trick.
The Mets rotation has been a surprise strength this season, but it can’t afford to spring leaks now.
Megill was giving them quality starts and helping balance the innings load — something critical with a bullpen that’s been used heavily.
If he can’t right the ship, New York might be forced to explore internal depth or test the trade market earlier than expected.
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