As the Mets watched one stalwart depart in free agency this morning, they’re faced with the possibility of another. Longtime first baseman Pete Alonso is at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, sitting down with interested teams as he tests the free agent market for a second straight offseason. (Alonso opted out of the second season of a two-year deal with the Mets last month.) Many Mets fans are hoping, particularly with Edwin Diaz headed to Los Angeles, that a new deal with Alonso is in the cards. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand casts some doubt on that likelihood, reporting that the Mets may be “hesitant” to stretch beyond three guaranteed years to re-sign Alonso.
It’s a familiar scene. The Mets wound up re-signing Alonso last offseason after he rejected their qualifying offer, but only on a two-year contract that allowed him to return to the market this winter via an opt-out. The Mets never seemed keen on giving Alonso the long-term deal he sought following the 2024 season, and that apparently hasn’t changed much a year later.
Alonso is coming off a better season at the plate this time around than he was in 2024, but he’s (of course) also a year older. A three-year deal would cover his age-31 through age-33 seasons. That’s not all that deep into his potential decline years, but while Alonso enjoyed a small decrease in strikeouts and uptick in batted-ball quality, he also saw his already poor defensive grades dip even further. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both dinged him at minus-9. Alonso is open to more DH time moving forward, but that apparently doesn’t make the team all that eager to lock Alonso in for his age-34 season or later.
Looking more generally at the current MLB landscape, the market simply hasn’t compensated first-base-only players with middling OBP skills much in recent years, regardless of power output. Alonso is an extreme version of that skill set — one of the most consistent power bats on the planet — but he typically walks at a 9-10% clip and posts an on-base percentage at or slightly above league-average. Defensive acumen and plate discipline can often boost a player’s floor in the eyes of modern evaluators; given that Alonso doesn’t stand out in either regard, there’s likely some real worry (from the Mets and other suitors) that an eventual decline could be precipitous in nature.
Any reluctance on stretching longer-term doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) stem from payroll concerns. The Mets’ payroll, while enormous, actually begins to open up in the not-too-distant future. They’re currently projected for $278MM in payroll and CBT obligations next season, per RosterResource. That drops to about a $176MM in roster allocations in 2027 (and $181MM in CBT obligations), and by the time we get out to 2028, they “only” have about $134MM on the books. Beginning in 2029, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are the only players guaranteed anything.
Today’s report doesn’t expressly rule out a reunion between Alonso and the Mets, but it’s long seemed that if the Mets were interested in signing Alonso to a true long-term contract, it’d have happened last offseason. The fact that it didn’t than and that they’re again looking short-term this winter implies that if Alonso is to return to Queens, it’s likelier to happen later in the offseason — after other suitors have spent their money elsewhere, creating a similar set of circumstances to those that paved the way for the two parties’ previous reunion.