The Mets are still in the market for upgrades to their starting pitching group, but they prefer to bolster the rotation by way of a trade rather than via free agency, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report.
It’s not exactly a surprising revelation. We’re one month removed from initial reporting that the Mets were reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term contract, and the Mets have since shown aversions to long-term deals for incumbent stars like Edwin Diaz and especially Pete Alonso — both of whom have now signed elsewhere. The Mets also traded the remaining five years of Brandon Nimmo’s contract for three of Marcus Semien. It seems there’s a real push to avoid clogging up the long-term books with many major deals beyond the lengthy commitments to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.
It’s worth noting, too, that the Mets are deep in both top prospects and young big leaguers that could be marketed to other clubs. Their farm system is generally regarded as one of the ten best in the game. Following this year’s draft and trade deadline, Baseball America ranked the Mets’ system ninth in the game. MLB.com ranked it seventh. BA counts five Mets prospects (Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, Brandon Sproat) among the top 100 in the game. Young infielders Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña are all available in trade talks as well, per Rosenthal and Sammon.
One of the market’s most notable trade candidates, Miami righty Edward Cabrera, came off the board yesterday when he was traded to the Cubs for a three-player package headlined by top young outfielder Owen Caissie. Presumably, the Mets would’ve had to pay an even steeper price as a division rival, but Cabrera’s removal from the market only thins out the supply and creates more urgency among teams still looking for meaningful rotation upgrades (e.g. Mets, Yankees, Orioles, D-backs, Padres).
The Mets have been connected to a handful of possible trade targets this winter. They’ve reportedly spoken to the Padres about Nick Pivetta and to the Brewers about Freddy Peralta. They were also among the teams in on Cabrera and had some interest in Minnesota’s Joe Ryan before the Twins signaled that they’re not planning to move him (or rotation-mate Pablo Lopez). They’ve surely at least checked in on other prominent and under-the-radar names on the market alike.
The Mets went to three years to sign Devin Williams in free agency, acquired three years of Semien and (reportedly) were unwilling to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso. Their free-agent deals with infielder Jorge Polanco and righty Luke Weaver only span a two-year term. There’s been no firm indication that they’re wholly against surpassing three years for any free agent, but that certainly seems to be the team’s comfort zone with additions to the roster.
In fact, since being named president of baseball operations, David Stearns hasn’t committed more than three years to any free agent other than Soto, whose signing was more of an ownership-level move. Stearns’ largest signing after Soto was Sean Manaea, whose three-year, $75MM deal contains more than $23MM in deferred money. Currently, the Mets only have four players on guaranteed contracts in 2028 (Soto, Lindor, Williams, Semien). By 2029, Soto and Lindor are the only two players on the books.
If there’s a reluctance to guarantee players anything into 2029 and beyond, as at least ostensibly seems to the be the case, that’ll make it quite difficult to land any of the top remaining free agent names. The Mets sat down with Framber Valdez back in November, and Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that there’s still some interest there. Of course, signing Valdez would surely require going beyond three years — likely to at least a five-year pact. Ranger Suarez, like Valdez, figures to be looking for at least a five-year deal in free agency. If either pitcher lingers into February or March, perhaps they’ll pivot to a shorter-term deal with opt-out opportunities. Beyond that, a match with the Mets seems hard to envision — at least based on the team’s recent tendencies under the current baseball operations regime.
RosterResource currently projects the Mets for a $294MM payroll and just over $296MM of luxury-tax obligations. That puts the Mets about $8MM shy of the top tier of penalization, which they’ve crossed in each of the past four seasons. They currently owe a 95% tax on any dollars spent up to $304MM worth of tax obligations. From that point on, they’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for every dollar spent.