The Mets are scouring the market for starting pitching, and recent reports suggest they are circling one of the biggest names left on the board. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Mets have met with veteran southpaw Framber Valdez, joining the San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles in showing legitimate interest.
On the surface, Valdez looks like the perfect reliable arm to stabilize a rotation; he is a workhorse who just tossed 192 innings in 2025 and posted a respectable 3.66 ERA. However, a deeper dive into his advanced metrics reveals a pitcher flashing massive warning signs that President of Baseball Operations David Stearns needs to heed before authorizing a massive contract.
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Hard Contact Is Becoming a Major Problem
The most alarming aspect of Valdez’s profile is just how hard opposing batters are hitting him. While he has always pitched to contact, the quality of that contact has deteriorated significantly.
In 2025, Valdez ranked in the 9th percentile for Hard-Hit Rate, allowing batters to square up the ball 46.3% of the time. His Average Exit Velocity was equally concerning, sitting in the 10th percentile at 90.8 mph. Essentially, when batters made contact, they were crushing the ball, suggesting his stuff is no longer fooling anyone.
Velocity Dip Raises Red Flags
Part of this regression can be attributed to a noticeable dip in velocity. Once capable of overpowering hitters with a heavy sinker, Valdez’s fastball velocity dropped to the 47th percentile in 2025, averaging just 94.2 mph. This is a steep decline from his peak, and for a pitcher entering his age-33 season, it is often a harbinger of a rapid downfall. With less velocity to separate his sinker from his breaking stuff, his margin for error has evaporated.
Relying on the Ground Ball
Valdez’s saving grace remains his elite ability to keep the ball on the ground. He ranked in the 97th percentile for Ground Ball Rate at 59.4%, which helps him escape jams and limit home run damage. However, relying solely on ground balls while allowing elite exit velocities is a dangerous game to play, especially as his athleticism ages.
The Mets are in a position where they need certainty, not expensive decline. While Valdez’s track record is impressive, paying him for what he was in 2022 rather than what he projects to be in 2026 could be a costly mistake. Unless the contract is incredibly nominal, the Mets should be wary of falling into this trap.