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Grading the Mets’ trade for Tyler Rogers

August 3, 2025 by Amazin Avenue

Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants
Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images

Trading name value guys who aren’t key pieces for an elite bullpen arm is usually a good move.

Building off their trade for Gregory Soto, the Mets acquired Tyler Rogers as their second move of the 2025 trade season. Three players – Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell, and Jose Butto – went back to San Francisco as the return.

Tyler Rogers (not Taylor, that’s the other twin who throws left handed with a more conventional slot) is the funkiest thrower in baseball. He delivers an 83.3 MPH sinker from an underhand slot that has him releasing the ball roughly 15” from the dirt of the pitching mound. He also throws a slider that rises. It’s insane stuff that has no analogues elsewhere in the game today, and while it doesn’t induce a ton of whiffs, batters simply cannot square it up (.286 xwOBACON). Yes he’s 34 and a pending free agent and has a K% barely over 20. Rogers has also been one of the best right-handed relievers in baseball for years. Plus there’s added benefit of diversifying the looks you get out of the Mets bullpen, something that’s been demonstrated to improve outcomes.

There is undoubtedly a lot of name value here going back to the Giants. Drew Gilbert was a big time college player, a 1st round pick, the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander trade, and a multi-time top-100 prospect. Blade Tidwell was another big-time college performer selected fairly high who made his major league debut this season. And Jose Butto was a key component of the Mets bullpen last year. The average Met fan knows all three of these names at this point and likely suspects they’re key long term pieces.

In reality, that’s probably not the case. Gilbert is 24 and repeating Triple-A w/ a 104 wRC+. His best skill is a propensity for pulling the ball in the air, but the rest of the offensive traits – contact, raw power, approach – range from just ok to fine. Injuries have sapped his speed and made him a less viable option in center. There’s no carrying tool here on either side of the ball, making him a fourth outfielder / tweener type rather than a long term centerpiece. And if you want evidence to that point, note that the Mets never called Gilbert up to reinforce their weak CF situation at any point this season.

Moving to Tidwell, we have someone with big fastball velocity but pretty weak outcomes due to poor shape, suspect command, and a lack of stamina. The sweeper is an interesting secondary that would likely play up in relief. Nevertheless, we’re ultimately talking about a 24-year-old arm who has an ERA over 4 in each of the last two seasons at Triple-A and who gave up 15 runs in 15 major league innings this season. On true talent, he is the something like the 9th or 10th best starter in the system at this point. That’s the kind of depth arm the Mets can replace fairly easily internally (a similar argument to the justification for trading Wellington Aracena in the Gregory Soto trade).

Finally, there’s Butto, who has not been able to reproduce his success from last season so far this year. His mid-3s ERA hides declining peripherals and contact suppression skills. More importantly, Butto is now out of options, meaning the Mets would have had to pass him through waivers to send him back to the minors. It is highly likely that they would’ve attempted to do just that after making additions to the bullpen via trade, and Butto would almost certainly have been lost to another team for nothing. Instead, the Mets managed to extract value from the situation while also sending Butto to an ideal situation where he has runway to continue to develop.

So yes, a lot of name value, but much less prospect value, and the Mets got one of the best, most underrated relievers in the game. It’s a fantastic trade to leverage some of the Mets 40-man bloat (an issue they would’ve had to address in the offseason regardless) for a significant upgrade in the short term. This trade gets an easy A+.

Filed Under: Mets

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